Great win by the A’s last night, lucky or not. Today’s stuff: Our daily MLB moneyline, our weekday MLB futures, and our latest NBA and NHL futures.
Tampa Bay at San Diego
The markets seem pretty deferential to Shane Baz today, and that makes sense given how well he’s been pitching. Michael King’s been great himself, though, and while the Padres have some high-profile injuries, the Rays are actually missing more of their rest-of-season projected WAR tonight, per our own bullpen availability estimates and FanGraphs’s Depth Charts. King’s been doing what he’s doing over a longer string, too. We’re thrilled for Baz, but his sample is still small.
Pick: San Diego to win –138. 15.00 units to win 10.87. Baz and King must start.
World Series
The best value we’re seeing today is on the A’s across futures markets and the Giants to win the NL West. We already have enough on both those causes to feel comfortable with them. Instead, we turn back to the Mariners, who are tied for first in the AL West with the roster to get them to the trade deadline. We aren’t going all in on these guys—they’re not guaranteed to be involved as an eventual contender—but we’re happy to keep stocking up.
Pick: Seattle to win +2500. 2.00 units to win 50.00.
NLCS
In the NL, there’s value on Atlanta, and it seems wise to take it now. The upside is always so high with these guys, and while it’s possible they’ll miss the playoffs, it’s more likely they’ll find themselves in the mix. This is our second postseason future on the Braves. We’ll probably need a lot more for them to be a profitable option for us come October.
Pick: Atlanta to win +800. 2.00 units to win 16.00.
NHL Western Conference
Our Gelo model is pretty out of step with markets, which could go a few different ways. On this one, though, it’s not higher by a crazy amount. We’re seeing things like an 89% eROI on the Canadiens, which we think is partly real and partly a sign our model’s a little off. With the Kings, it’s 37%. That’s more believable in a futures setting. (We do already have something on Montreal, and we stand by that. Breadth and depth—gotta have both with this portfolio approach.)
Pick: Los Angeles to win +400. 2.00 units to win 8.00.
First Round: Indiana vs. Milwaukee
This is unlikely to hit, and it puts us in a likely post-first round hole. The odds are good, though, and with the Bucks at home for Games 3 and 4, we might come out of those with leverage in the event we want to use it. Also: Betting something at +374 is still a +374 bet whether it’s for a conference title or to win a series after trailing 2–0. It’s a mistake to not think of those things as comparably likely.
Pick: Milwaukee to win +374. 2.00 units to win 7.48.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. We’ll get that Google Sheet up soon which tracks all our bets this year.
2025: –85.72 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025: –2% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 306 single-game markets plus one completed futures portfolio)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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