Editor’s Note: For almost three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,546 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 0.2% might not sound enormous, you can do a lot with it over time.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
UCLA @ Stanford
There’s an argument here that Fresno State, who struggled against UNLV last night, isn’t good enough for UCLA to be justified in losing to them last week.
That’s a pretty simple argument. It leaves some things out. And those other things indicate UCLA should be fine.
Pick: UCLA -4 (-115). Low confidence.
North Texas @ Louisiana Tech
Louisiana Tech got burned last week on an SMU Hail Mary, but again, it was just one result. A week earlier, the Bulldogs couldn’t put away Southeastern Louisiana until the very end of the game. They might just be inconsistent, as so many college football teams are. Hopefully, they’re playing to the level of their competition.
Pick: North Texas +11 (-115). Low confidence.
Tennessee @ Florida
Who’s Tennessee’s quarterback today? Does it really matter?
There’s downside with both options. There’s limited upside with each. But a team that at least looked competent last week in a blowout win over Tennessee Tech has more of a shot in the Swamp than the market’s indicating, and that’s not just because of the SEC East Chaos Theory. Florida made Alabama work for it, but their win probability never really got over 75%.
This is not coming from a belief the Vols will win.
It’s coming from an indication that they could.
Tennessee to win +725. Low confidence.
California @ Washington
For all of Washington’s flaws, their defense has been solid enough so far. Even allowing 31 points to Michigan might not be that bad a result when we get to hindsight.
Pick: Washington -7.5 (-115). Low confidence.
