Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 524 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 3% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is pretty good. It would not be a great annual ROI for an investor. But it’s not too shabby on a daily basis.
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Three picks today, all in college football.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data and predictions from FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, Spotrac, and ESPN is/are often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
Pittsburgh @ Penn State
With Michigan drawing skepticism after their narrow defeat of Army last week, Penn State’s path to its first College Football Playoff appearance looks a little lighter. They do have to play Ohio State and Michigan State on the road, as well as Iowa and Maryland, but not having to see Wisconsin opens things up a bit. Ohio State has the more favorable schedule—Michigan State, Penn State, Maryland, and Wisconsin all travel to Columbus—but with significant doubts about Michigan’s offense, Michigan State’s offense, and Maryland’s defense, Penn State can at least confidently claim to be the second-most likely to win the Big Ten East. If they can finish 11-1 with their only loss coming to a one or zero-loss Ohio State, you might even hear talk of a two-bid Big Ten.
Pick: Penn State -17 (-110). Low confidence.
Miami (OH) @ Cincinnati
Credit to both Miami Ohio and Cincinnati for their non-conference scheduling. Miami agreed to play Iowa, Ohio State, and the Bearcats all on the road, and while they’re certainly getting nice paydays out of the deal, it’s a bold move nonetheless. The RedHawks are in the upper tier in the MAC (9.8% chance of winning the conference, according to our model), but they’re a step behind Toledo and two steps behind Ohio. Winning five games in conference play, in addition to their victory over FCS Tennessee Tech last week, is not a foregone conclusion.
Cincinnati didn’t schedule any FCS opponents this year, instead opting to visit Ohio State and sometimes-dangerous Marshall while hosting UCLA and the RedHawks. The win over UCLA was nice for a team our model picks to finish second in their division. To win today, they’ll rely on their defense, which should be enough. But scoring enough points to cover, with what SP+ ranks as the 100th-best offense in FBS, will be a challenge.
Pick: Miami (OH) +17.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Stanford @ UCF
While Stanford’s loss to USC wasn’t surprising, the 25-point margin was a bit startling. It’s been four years now since the Cardinal won the Pac-12 and dominated Iowa in the Rose Bowl, and the program has yet to regain that might. The offense, which was so hard to stop on the ground for so long, ranks 94th in SP+ this year, and the team as a whole ranks only 61st. David Shaw still has a respectable program with a lot of potential, but the shine from the Harbaugh era is wearing off.
Pick: UCF -9.5 (-110). Low confidence.
