Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 594 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 7% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is pretty good. It would not be an exceptional annual ROI for an investor. But it’s not too shabby when coming between four hours and seven months after making the picks.
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Oklahoma @ Kansas State
By yards per attempt, Kansas State has the seventh-worst rushing defense in the FBS. By that same metric, Oklahoma has the best rushing offense. This is, of course, concerning for the Wildcats. But it’s not the end of the story.
While Kansas State struggles mightily against the run, they defend the pass well, ranking 12th in the FBS in yards per attempt. Oklahoma’s offense, in that metric, is the FBS’ second-best.
Oklahoma’s offense can beat teams in a lot of ways. Kansas State is well-equipped to stop half those ways. That’s better than some can say.
Pick: Kansas State +23.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Indiana @ Nebraska
Playing in the Big Ten East, alongside Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan, and Michigan State, Indiana could be a top 25 team and still struggle to finish the conference season above .500. This might be why, so far this year, they’ve gone unnoticed.
The aggregate ratings our model uses peg the Hoosiers as the 35th-best team in the country. No, that isn’t top 25, but it’s only 3.6 points away on a neutral field. Having drawn none of the Big Ten West’s best this year, finishing the regular season 8-4 isn’t impossible. Upset Michigan at home in a month, as something like 4.5-point underdogs, and the Hoosiers could hit nine wins.
First, though, they have to take care of business in Lincoln. Each of the rating systems our model references has the Hoosiers as at least a slight favorite. In Vegas, they’re a slight underdog.
Pick: Indiana to win (+110). Low confidence.
Cal @ Utah
Cal’s already woeful offense is dealing with some uncertainty at quarterback. First-stringer Chase Garbers might be out for the whole season. Second-stringer Devon Modster has been referred to as “week-to-week” with an unspecified injury of his own. But with an offense SP+ rates as the 109th-best in the FBS (22nd-worst), it’s hard to see that hurting the chances of hitting the over. Especially when, with Utah a 20.5-point favorite, Cal’s implied to only need to score eight to hit the total on the nose.
Pick: Over 36.5 (-110). Low confidence.
