Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 576 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 4% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is pretty good. It would not be a great annual ROI for an investor. But it’s not too shabby on a daily basis.
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Three picks today.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data and predictions from FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, Spotrac, and ESPN is/are often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
Mississippi @ Missouri
While Kelly Bryant’s health has stolen the headlines on this one (and seems to have moved the line), an arguably bigger question for Mississippi is whether they can score points against Mizzou’s seventh-ranked (by SP+) defense.
Mizzou, though bowl-ineligible, is by SP+ a top-ten team. Yes, a lot of that has to do with Bryant keeping their offense afloat (it ranks 33rd). But more of it has to do with that defense, which ranks 20th in the FBS in opponent yards per rush attempt and sixth in opponent yards per pass attempt. Mississippi is, by SP+, poorer than the last three FBS offenses Mizzou has faced, those of West Virginia, South Carolina, and Troy. Against those three, Mizzou allowed a total of 31 points. Look out.
Pick: 6-Point Teaser; Missouri -6, Under 62.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Penn State @ Iowa
It’s easy to chalk up Iowa’s three-point showing against Michigan to the three interceptions, the fumble, and Michigan’s second-ranked (by SP+) defense. But Iowa amassed only one rushing yard. Total.
Penn State’s defense leads the country in opponent yards per rush attempt. It outranks Michigan in opponent yards per pass attempt, too. No, the Nittany Lions haven’t dealt with the schedule Michigan’s been subjected to in the early going (Wisconsin is offensively potent, Pitt is not), but they did hold Purdue’s 23rd-ranked (by SP+) offense to just seven points last week. Iowa has its work cut out for it, especially when considering how unlike Michigan, Penn State has an offense.
Pick: Penn State -3.5 (-105). Low confidence.
Florida @ LSU
Florida has a decent offense. LSU has a decent defense.
Florida has a very good defense. LSU has a very good offense.
Each of the four units is balanced. And while LSU is justifiably favored, especially at home, none of the four rating systems our model uses (SP+, FPI, Massey, Sagarin) has LSU as more than a ten-point favorite.
Pick: Florida +13.5 (-105). Low confidence.
