Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,342 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We’re relying on Neil Paine’s NBA forecast as the basis for our playoff futures portfolio. We use our own Gelo model as the basis for our NHL playoff futures portfolio.
Active markets today: Major League Baseball moneylines, plus MLB, NBA, and NHL futures.
Single-day MLB bets: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%, betting strictly moneylines. We’re trying the same approach this year. We’re 25–29 so far, down 4.35 units. We’re on another cold stretch right now.
MLB futures: We have a great history with these, though the last two years we’ve only made small profits. In both 2019 and 2021, I believe we recorded better than a 50% ROI. In 2020, we lost about 25% of our portfolio. We began this season with 750 units in our portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. We place two medium-confidence bets most weekdays until sometime in September when the scenarios become more specific.
NBA futures: We’ve only done these once before, but they went well. I believe we made a 7% return on our investment last year. We started at the beginning of the Play-In Tournament with a 100-unit portfolio. Right now, we’re mostly just placing one future per day. We’re up 2.79 units so far.
NHL futures: We’ve had mixed results on these. In 2022, we lost 25% of our futures portfolio. Last year, we made a 33% return. We began on the first day of the playoffs with a 100-unit portfolio. Right now, we’re mostly placing just one future per day. We’re down one unit so far.
San Diego @ Arizona
The Padres acquired Luis Arraez yesterday, and it wouldn’t be a huge surprise to see him not yet in the lineup today. To be honest, though, I haven’t checked if he’s expected to be in there or not, because the value’s good even if he plays. People sometimes forget, with baseball, that there’s always a subtraction when you add. Somebody else loses at-bats.
Pick: Arizona to win –121. Low confidence. (King and Pfaadt must start.)
Second Round: New York vs. Indiana
So what we’re seeing with this series is that Philadelphia and New York might have both been overvalued. We’re seeing that from Neil Paine’s model. We’re seeing that from Core Score. We understand the Pacers are very, very flawed, but we think this is a good price.
Pick: Indiana to win +225. Low confidence.
Western Conference
On the hockey side, we’re adding a second unit on the Avalanche. The high-level situation with Gelo is that it distrusts the Oilers and distrusts the Knights. Guessing we’ll end up putting something on the Canucks tomorrow, because of that.
Pick: Colorado to win +240. Low confidence.
