Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -3.9% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 2,884 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% across 762 completed high and medium-confidence picks.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
A split for Gelo last night, though I’ll admit we were riding pretty high there early in the third period. More hockey today, including futures. For futures portfolio context: The NHL futures bankroll started at 100 units, with another 100 in reserve in case of hedging need. The MLB futures bankroll started at 520 units, with another 520 in reserve in case of hedging need.
Carolina @ New York Rangers
Gelo sees no value on the moneyline tonight, which is rare, given how small the moneyline vig is for NHL games and how much Gelo habitually disagrees with the market. There might be value on the over, and we’ll take it, especially at positive odds. Feels like the market’s been lulled in a little bit with all the low-scoring ones, and while these are certainly a low-scoring pair of teams, over 5.5 at positive odds is an aggressive line.
Pick: Over 5.5 +117. Low confidence.
Stanley Cup
We’re going to have to hedge this week, I would assume, likely through some combination of bets on the Avalanche and Hurricanes, possibly in hyper-specific markets or with parlays involved. For now, though, there’s value on the Lightning and the Oilers, and we want to build our base as large as possible. Since the Lightning’s odds will probably recede should the Hurricanes win tonight, they’re our move today. As it stands, our best case—Lightning over Oilers, with the Rangers having eliminated the Hurricanes—nets us 69.92 units on the futures endeavor, while our worst case—Avalanche over Hurricanes—nets us a 43.17-unit loss. It is good to have the upside higher than the downside.
Pick: Tampa Bay to win +250. Low confidence.
Pick: Tampa Bay to win +250. Low confidence.
