Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,938 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,618 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FiveThirtyEight’s models are heavily used in making NBA and soccer futures picks. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Our NHL picks are based on Gelo, our own model.
Three markets today, with MLB futures off for the weekend. Here’s the status of each.
On single-game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 34–24, we’re up 6.15 units, we’re up 11% (the average line on our winners has been –113). It’s been a good start to the year, and while May hasn’t been a great month overall, we’re up so far on these last two weeks.
For the NBA future: We began the postseason with 75 units in our NBA futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend one a day over the postseason’s 69 days (if there’s an NBA Finals Game 7). With many payouts coming before the end of the postseason, this will hopefully leave us with at least 25 units on hand at all times should we see an arbitrage opportunity or want to hedge. We’re up 7.63 units so far.
For the NHL future: We began the postseason with 75 units in our NHL futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend one a day over the postseason’s 63 days (if there’s a Stanley Cup Finals Game 7). The idea is the same as the NBA—we’re hoping to always have at least 25 units on hand at all times should we see an arbitrage opportunity or want to hedge. We’re up 5.03 units so far.
San Diego @ New York (AL)
We have a lot of respect for Michael Wacha, but this is a tough matchup for the Padres. It’s starting at 10:05 AM Pacific Time, Hader’s pitched back-to-back nights, and Luis Severino looked solid enough in his season debut. This one should go to the Yankees.
Pick: New York (AL) to win –151. Low confidence. (Wacha and Severino must start.)
NBA Finals
These odds keep getting longer, and the idea is straightforward: The Celtics are favored tonight and are also favored in Game 7. But between those two games, the Heat do have two chances, and with downside already mostly eliminated in our futures portfolio, this is an easy risk for us to continue to take.
Pick: Miami to win +500. Low confidence.
Stanley Cup (Hedge)
Just a little more hedging today while we wait for the Knights to hopefully wrap things up and grab us some units. We’ll have a better read on the situation in the morning, one way or the other.
Pick: Florida to win +110. Low confidence. (Note: Odds conditional on Panthers/Knights Finals matchup, so bet will push if Stars eliminate Knights)
