Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,389 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We’re relying on Neil Paine’s NBA forecast as the basis for our playoff futures portfolio. We use our own Gelo model as the basis for our NHL playoff futures portfolio.
Active markets today: Major League Baseball moneylines, plus NBA and NHL futures. MLB futures are off today and tomorrow, as usual.
Single-day MLB bets: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%, betting strictly moneylines. We’ve tried a similar approach this year. We’re 42–49 so far, down 11.50 units. It is going terribly, but there is a lot of season left.
NBA futures: We’ve only done these once before, but they went well. I believe we made a 7% return on our investment last year. We started at the beginning of the Play-In Tournament with a 100-unit portfolio. Right now, we’re mostly just placing one future per day. We’re up 2.67 units so far.
NHL futures: We’ve had mixed results on these. In 2022, we lost 25% of our futures portfolio. Last year, we made a 33% return. We began on the first day of the playoffs with a 100-unit portfolio. Right now, we’re mostly placing just one future per day. We’re down 2.20 units so far.
New York (AL) @ San Diego
The Yankees are playing great ball right now. But. They’ve got one or two illnesses going around, Marcus Stroman has been good–not–great, and Dylan Cease was rolling before Monday’s start in Atlanta, one where a decent share of his problem was a .467 BABIP day. We like the Padres to bounce back and grab a win here.
Pick: San Diego to win –119. Low confidence. (Stroman and Cease must start.)
NBA Finals
We’re going with four units here instead of our usual one, because we don’t know that the odds are going to get longer on the Celtics before the Finals start. We have a huge liability around the Mavericks, but our Celtics winning the title would wash it away. At this price, we do think the value’s there. The Mavericks are clearly better than their regular season indicated, but it still has to mean something.
Pick: Boston to win –200. Low confidence. x4
Stanley Cup
Another unit on the East here. Huge for us to see the Rangers get that win last night, but we can still use this help, which covers the Panthers as well.
Pick: Eastern Conference Champion to win +100. Low confidence.
