Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -3.9% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 2,863 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% across 762 completed high and medium-confidence picks.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
A positive split from Gelo last night, giving us about half a unit in profit with some futures benefit as well. One pick for tonight, plus futures. F1 and NASCAR tomorrow (early tomorrow, because of the F1). Futures portfolio context: The NHL futures bankroll started at 100 units, with another 100 in reserve in case of hedging need.
Colorado @ St. Louis
Gelo views the Blues as the favorite, and even if you say it’s wrong on that, even that lean is telling. What it specifically tells us is that for as dominant as the Avalanche were against the Predators, they aren’t exactly “hot” right now. They finished the season on a 4-5-1 run, and while that might have been playoff preparation setting in, it also might not have been. It’s easy to make too much of the Predators sweep just because the Predators were in the playoffs, but is beating up the 16th-best team that noteworthy?
Pick: St. Louis to win +142. Low confidence.
Eastern Conference
Gelo, relative to the market, likes the Lightning more and more by the day, and Gelo isn’t changing, which implies the market is getting lower on Tampa Bay? As they keep winning?
Pick: Tampa Bay to win +155. Low confidence.
Stanley Cup
There was a little shift towards the long side here overnight, presumably due to the increased likelihood of the Lightning facing the Hurricanes in the Eastern Conference Finals, should they make it. It’s fair, there’s some of that going on, but the probability didn’t change that much.
Pick: Tampa Bay to win +500. Low confidence.
