Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,895 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,618 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FiveThirtyEight’s models are heavily used in making NBA and soccer futures picks. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Our NHL picks are based on Gelo, our own model.
Three markets today, with MLB futures off for the weekend.
On single-game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 29–22, we’re up 4.59 units, we’re up 9% (the average line on our winners has been –109). It’s been a good start to the year, but May has admittedly been rough.
For the NBA future: We began the postseason with 75 units in our NBA futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend one a day over the postseason’s 69 days (if there’s an NBA Finals Game 7). With many payouts coming before the end of the postseason, this will hopefully leave us with at least 25 units on hand at all times should we see an arbitrage opportunity or want to hedge. We’re up 5.27 units so far.
For the NHL future: We began the postseason with 75 units in our NHL futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend one a day over the postseason’s 63 days (if there’s a Stanley Cup Finals Game 7). The idea is the same as the NBA—we’re hoping to always have at least 25 units on hand at all times should we see an arbitrage opportunity or want to hedge. We’re up 0.73 units so far.
Kansas City @ Chicago (AL)
Remember when Lucas Giolito looked like he wouldn’t work out? That’s been five years ago now, and every season since the pitcher has finished with a FIP and an xERA under 4.25. In three of the four seasons, all three of his ERA/xERA/FIP were under 3.80. He’s off to a great start again, and Jordan Lyles is not, and so while the value isn’t spectacular here, we like what it does for us, wanting to rack up a few wins and get the month back on track.
Pick: Chicago (AL) to win –185. Low confidence. (Lyles and Giolito must start.)
Western Conference
Across the NBA and the NHL, the first six games of the Conference Finals have each gone our way. This is absurd, and it’s unlikely to hold up. At the same time, though, it’s put us in a position where we can really tailor what we’re doing to various scenarios. While Celtics/Lakers is our doomsday scenario in basketball, it’s very unlikely. Less than a 1-in-10 chance. So, we can move up the rung to Celtics/Nuggets, our next-worst scenario, and once there, we find this value on the Nuggets. It’s expensive, but the Nuggets are more than 80% likely to win this series.
Pick: Denver to win –400. Low confidence.
Stanley Cup
Gelo says there’s only a 9% chance of Dallas and Carolina playing in the Stanley Cup Finals, and while that probability is a little lower than the market has it, we’d have some warning before our hockey doomsday scenario got here. No hedging today, then, after yesterday tidied up our scenarios. Instead, just a hunt for value. We see the most of it on the Knights, who Gelo believes are far and away the best team playing right now.
Pick: Vegas to win +175. Low confidence.
