Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,375 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We’re relying on Neil Paine’s NBA forecast as the basis for our playoff futures portfolio. We use our own Gelo model as the basis for our NHL playoff futures portfolio.
Active markets today: Major League Baseball moneylines, plus NBA and NHL futures. MLB futures are off for the weekend.
Single-day MLB bets: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%, betting strictly moneylines. We’re trying the same approach this year. We’re 41–44 so far, down 8.33 units. This is like when a young team unexpectedly performs well one season then opens slow to start the next year: We don’t know whether we’re going to heat back up or if we’re actually just bad at this.
NBA futures: We’ve only done these once before, but they went well. I believe we made a 7% return on our investment last year. We started at the beginning of the Play-In Tournament with a 100-unit portfolio. Right now, we’re mostly just placing one future per day. We’re up 2.79 units so far.
NHL futures: We’ve had mixed results on these. In 2022, we lost 25% of our futures portfolio. Last year, we made a 33% return. We began on the first day of the playoffs with a 100-unit portfolio. Right now, we’re mostly placing just one future per day. We’re down 1.20 units so far.
Detroit @ Arizona
We’re wary of betting against Jack Flaherty. His ERA might be due for positive regression on top of an already strong start to the year. Still, there isn’t a slam dunk option today, and overall, we think the Tigers are a little overvalued because of their hot start, while the Diamondbacks’ injuries have them due for some wins, with a better roster than record. We’ll take the Tigers to continue their return to earth and the D-Backs to even the series after last night’s beatdown.
Pick: Arizona to win –136. Low confidence. (Flaherty and Gallen must start.)
Western Conference (NBA)
We’re in a comfortable enough position for all potential Finals matchups except for 1) Mavericks/Celtics and 2) those involving the Pacers. So, we’re going to add a little bit more here on the Timberwolves. There are more things that could go wrong for the Nuggets tomorrow than the Wolves. The Nuggets are just a little thinner. And while Denver’s deservedly that favorite, this is about value. We’ll be fine if the Nuggets win the series. We’ll be in great shape if Minnesota pulls off the upset.
Pick: Minnesota to win +325. Low confidence.
Western Conference (NHL)
We’re already in on the Canucks to beat the Oilers, in a variety of ways. We still think the value’s great, though, and this gets us to a point where if the Canucks win the Western Conference Finals, we’ll make a 12-unit profit in that market. Our current Stanley Cup market scenarios involve a 12-unit loss if the Western Conference champ wins it all. This is a bit simplistic, but basically, this bet checks the Canucks off our list.
Pick: Vancouver to win +350. Low confidence.
