Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -4% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 2,844 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% across 762 completed high and medium-confidence picks.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
A loss from Gelo yesterday—should’ve known not to mess with injuries. ‘Twas a rough loss. The Penguins started so well. Another one today, plus NHL futures (portfolio context: the bankroll is 100 units, with another 100 in reserve in case we need them for hedging) and IndyCar picks.
Tampa Bay @ Toronto
There’s the obvious rationale here—the market might be overweighting Toronto’s recent history of dramatic playoff disappointment—and while that kind of thing’s often so overblown it can become a reason to follow the opposite rationale—that the market is overweighting its perception of others in the market overweighting Toronto’s recent history of dramatic playoff disappointment—Gelo does see it as a narrowly profitable play, so we’ll take it.
Pick: Toronto to win -123. Low confidence.
Western Conference
There’s still value on the Oilers and Blues (and Kings), so we’ll keep piling it on until the time comes to pivot. We have more upside with the Kings than with the Oilers, but the Oilers have the better probability of actually winning the Western Conference, if you follow these devotedly and are torn on that game tonight.
Pick: Edmonton to win +750. Low confidence.
Stanley Cup
A nice thing for us is that at least one of the Hurricanes, Rangers, Bruins, and Penguins will reach the Eastern Conference Finals, and we have something on all of them and now a good payout from each besides Carolina. Well-set in the Metropolitan portion of the bracket.
Pick: New York Rangers to win +1800. Low confidence.
IndyCar: GMR Grand Prix (Indianapolis Motor Speedway Road Course)
It’s a little surprising Will Power isn’t more of an overwhelming favorite, as the polesitter and winner of five of the eleven races on this track all-time. We’ll gladly take him at these odds, and we’ll throw a little down on Romain Grosjean as well. Grosjean’s hype has worn off, but his performance has remained strong on road courses and he was the runner up in both races here last year.
Pick: Will Power to win +300. Low confidence.
Pick: Romain Grosjean to win +1400. Low confidence.
