Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,889 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,618 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FiveThirtyEight’s models are heavily used in making NBA and soccer futures picks. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Our NHL picks are based on Gelo, our own model.
Three markets today, with MLB futures off for the weekend. Here’s what’s up with each.
On single-game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 27–17, we’re up 7.78 units, we’re up 18% (the average line on our winners has been –109). It’s been a good year so far.
For the NBA future: We began the postseason with 75 units in our NBA futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend one a day over the postseason’s 69 days (if there’s an NBA Finals Game 7). With many payouts coming before the end of the postseason, this will hopefully leave us with at least 25 units on hand at all times should we see an arbitrage opportunity or want to hedge. We’re up 5.27 units so far.
For the NHL future: We began the postseason with 75 units in our NHL futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend one a day over the postseason’s 63 days (if there’s a Stanley Cup Finals Game 7). The idea is the same as the NBA—we’re hoping to always have at least 25 units on hand at all times should we see an arbitrage opportunity or want to hedge. We’re up 1.73 units so far.
St. Louis @ Boston
We’re on a three-game losing streak, our first of that length all season. This isn’t as big a favorite as we’d hoped to find, but we do like the value. Chris Sale’s FIP and xERA are much, much better than his ERA, and they’re the more predictive two of those three metrics. His walk numbers are dropping, and on the bullpen side, while Kenley Jansen likely isn’t available this afternoon, neither should Ryan Helsley be. We’ll take it.
Pick: Boston to win –127. Low confidence. (Matz and Sale must start.)
NBA Western Conference
Is the NBA rigged? This series almost boils down to that, and comparing the fundamentals to the betting line, a lot of people seem to think it is. The Nuggets are the better team, they have home-court advantage, they have the better best player. Their implied win probability is only 56%. We have to think the real probability is higher than that.
Pick: Denver to win –140. Low confidence.
NHL Eastern Conference
The early line on the Canes/Panthers series varies by book, and it isn’t to the point where we’re seeing an arbitrage opportunity, but we do think that if the Panthers can win even one game in Raleigh—which is the likelier possibility—we’ll be able to hedge into a comfortable place from our massive position on them, which is currently 37.5% of our outstanding hockey bets.
Pick: Florida to win +125. Low confidence.
