Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,358 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We’re relying on Neil Paine’s NBA forecast as the basis for our playoff futures portfolio. We use our own Gelo model as the basis for our NHL playoff futures portfolio.
Active markets today: Major League Baseball moneylines, plus NBA and NHL futures. MLB futures are off for the weekend.
Single-day MLB bets: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%, betting strictly moneylines. We’re trying the same approach this year. We’re 34–36 so far, down 4.53 units. We started poorly, we rallied, and we were on another cold stretch going into this week. We pivoted a little on Monday, and we’ve gone 9–5 over the last five days, making 1.81 units in the process. In other words, we don’t know what direction these are headed right now.
NBA futures: We’ve only done these once before, but they went well. I believe we made a 7% return on our investment last year. We started at the beginning of the Play-In Tournament with a 100-unit portfolio. Right now, we’re mostly just placing one future per day. We’re up 2.79 units so far.
NHL futures: We’ve had mixed results on these. In 2022, we lost 25% of our futures portfolio. Last year, we made a 33% return. We began on the first day of the playoffs with a 100-unit portfolio. Right now, we’re mostly placing just one future per day. We’re down one unit so far.
Atlanta @ New York (NL)
We’re not saying Christian Scott is for real based on one start. What we’re saying is that based on that one start, the probability is high enough of him being for real that these odds make sense.
Pick: New York to win +140. Low confidence. (Fried and Scott must start.)
St. Louis @ Milwaukee
It’s hard to see the Cardinals winning this one. They’re better on paper than they’ve been on the field, and even on paper, this looks pretty comfortable for Milwaukee. Kyle Gibson, a rare Cardinals bright spot, is due for some ERA regression. He’s allowing too hard of contact to keep the .246 BABIP going. That should leave him solid, but expecting him to outduel Freddy Peralta is asking too much.
Pick: Milwaukee to win –172. Low confidence. (Gibson and Peralta must start.)
Second Round: New York vs. Indiana
This is low-upside, and it eliminates most of the rest of our Pacers upside, but we don’t trust Indiana, even with the Knicks’ lineup so thin. Everything came so hard last night.
Pick: New York to win –215. Low confidence.
Eastern Conference (NHL)
The Panthers, with a 2–1 first round lead, are seeing the same odds as the Rangers, who have yet to lose a playoff game and won the Presidents’ Trophy. At this point, the Rangers doubt might really be significantly based on Presidents’ Trophy superstition.
Pick: NY Rangers to win +120. Low confidence.
