Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,770 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,617 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. KenPom is used in making college basketball picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer futures picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL futures picks.
No new futures today.
Michigan @ Vanderbilt
I think talent wins out here, and I believe enough in Michigan’s effort after Tuesday night. I think they get it done and take over as the favorites to at least make the championship game.
Pick: Michigan +2 (-110). Low confidence.
Houston vs. Auburn
I know Houston’s beat up, but I do wonder if Kelvin Sampson was sandbagging a little when he talked about how concerned he was. I also wonder if the focus will be locked in knowing there are no safety nets. More than anything, though, Houston’s just a great basketball team, and Auburn isn’t, and even with the adversity, I’ll take the great one.
Pick: Houston -5 (-110). Low confidence.
Texas vs. Penn State
Is regression coming for either of these two? Each is hotter than hot.
Of the two, Texas is returning to initial expectations while Penn State blows initial expectations away. Those expectations were based on talent. Texas has a lot of it in a lot of places. Penn State has a medium amount.
Pick: Texas -5.5 (-110). Low confidence.
UCLA vs. Northwestern
Like Houston, UCLA is a team that knows it lacks a safety net. I don’t think the stars let themselves lose to Northwestern, and I don’t think they let it be in much doubt.
Pick: UCLA -7.5 (-110). Low confidence.
