Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.9% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,961 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3.1% across 1,617 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FiveThirtyEight’s models are heavily used in making NBA and soccer futures picks. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Our NHL picks are based on Gelo, our own model.
Three markets today. MLB futures take the weekend off.
On single-game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 37–28, we’re up 4.57 units, we’re up 7% (the average line on our winners has been –114). April was great, May was bad, we started June with a loss but there’s a lot of June left.
For the NBA future: We began the postseason with 75 units in our NBA futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend one a day over the postseason’s 69 days (if there’s an NBA Finals Game 7). With many payouts coming before the end of the postseason, this will hopefully leave us with at least 25 units on hand at all times should we see an arbitrage opportunity or want to hedge. We’re up 17.63 units so far.
For the NHL future: We began the postseason with 75 units in our NHL futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend one a day over the postseason’s 63 days (if there’s a Stanley Cup Finals Game 7). The idea is the same as the NBA—we’re hoping to always have at least 25 units on hand at all times should we see an arbitrage opportunity or want to hedge. We’re up 5.49 units so far.
Philadelphia @ Washington
Credit to MacKenzie Gore for being good enough this year that the Nationals are a favorite here, but the Nationals should not be a favorite against the Phillies. The Phils are going full bullpen game today, with Matt Strahm throwing 41 pitches two days ago so clearly not expected to eat a lot of innings. But, the Phils have the fresher bullpen than the Nationals, even if it’s a little bit spent, and for as good as Gore’s been, there’s probably too much being made of his last start. It was a great start—seven innings, eleven strikeouts—but it was one start. He’s a good pitcher. Not a great one.
Pick: Philadelphia to win –102. Low confidence. (Strahm and Gore must start.)
NBA Finals (Hedge)
More hedging here. We’re just chipping away until either the season ends or the Heat make this a series. Same story every day for right now.
Pick: Denver to win –700. Low confidence.
Stanley Cup (Hedge)
The same thing’s happening here, though one twist is that with this latest hedge, we’re now locked into even more profitability from here. Both teams are a profitable route for us. It’s a matter of magnitude.
Pick: Florida to win +105. Low confidence.
