Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2.5% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,507 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We use our own Gelo model as the basis for our NHL playoff futures portfolio.
Active markets today: Major League Baseball moneylines. MLB futures are off for the weekend, and we’re going to wait until Monday to decide whether to hedge out of our Panthers position in the NHL futures portfolio.
Single-day MLB bets: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%, betting strictly moneylines. We’ve tried a similar approach this year. We’re 75–71 so far, down 7.46 units. It seems we did not, in fact, find something that worked. We keep trying, though. For better or worse
Arizona @ Philadelphia
It’s pricey, and the dampness and heat are a slight concern, but this is one the Phillies figure to manage pretty aggressively, and Zack Wheeler’s bad day against the Orioles is likelier than not to be a one-off thing.
Pick: Philadelphia to win –233. Low confidence. (Henry and Wheeler must start.)
Atlanta @ New York (AL)
There’s a chance of rain affecting this one too, but we’re not particularly worried about that. This isn’t about the starters as much as it’s about the Braves being a comparably good team to the Yankees, even as the Yankees have played better so far.
Pick: Atlanta to win +128. Low confidence. (Morton and Stroman must start.)
