Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,412 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We’re relying on Neil Paine’s NBA forecast as the basis for our playoff futures portfolio. We use our own Gelo model as the basis for our NHL playoff futures portfolio.
Active markets today: Major League Baseball moneylines, plus NBA and NHL futures. MLB futures are off for the weekend.
Single-day MLB bets: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%, betting strictly moneylines. We’ve tried a similar approach this year. We’re 48–53 so far, down 10.62 units. It’s been a terrible performance, and while we had a good start to the week, Thursday and Friday went poorly.
NBA futures: We’ve only done these once before, but they went well. I believe we made a 7% return on our investment last year. We started at the beginning of the Play-In Tournament with a 100-unit portfolio. Right now, we’re mostly just placing one future per day. We’re down 7.83 units so far, but we’re set to profit on the effort if the Celtics win the Finals.
NHL futures: We’ve had mixed results on these. In 2022, we lost 25% of our futures portfolio. Last year, we made a 33% return. We began on the first day of the playoffs with a 100-unit portfolio. Right now, we’re mostly placing just one future per day. We’re down 2.20 units so far.
Oakland @ Atlanta
Nothing fancy today. Chris Sale’s been automatic, and the Braves are playing the A’s. There is a limit to the price at which we’d take this, but even 1-to-3 isn’t at that limit.
Pick: Atlanta to win –300. Low confidence. (Brooks and Sale must start.)
NBA Finals
Today’s allotment towards the Celtics. We’re just monitoring the odds at this point and making sure there aren’t big twists with injuries.
Pick: Boston to win –210. Low confidence.
Stanley Cup
This is a big one. Fifteen units here. It’s not quite enough to move our preference from the Rangers to the Panthers, but it’s close.
What’s happening with this is that Gelo continues to see more value in the Eastern Conference than the Western Conference. Originally, this largely came through Gelo’s high estimation of the Rangers and low estimation of the Oilers. Gelo adjusts fast, though, and it’s adjusted on the Oilers to the point where its Western Conference Finals probabilities now match the market’s implied probabilities for the series. Gelo is no longer low on the Oilers specifically. It’s low on both the Oilers and the Stars, or—and this is equally possible—it’s high on the Panthers.
Whatever the case, Gelo sees value in Florida at this price, and by putting 15 units down, we get ourselves a profitable scenario in the event of an Oilers/Panthers Finals. We’d still prefer the Rangers, and we’d really still prefer the Stars, but the facts are what they are, and retaining a path to profitability gives us something we can work with.
Pick: Florida to win +130. Low confidence. x15
