Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,844 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,618 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FiveThirtyEight’s models are heavily used in making NBA and soccer futures picks. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Our NHL picks are based on Gelo, our own model.
Three markets today, with our MLB futures off for the weekend. The context in each sphere:
On single-game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 21–9, we’re up 10.64 units, we’re up 35% (the average line on our winners has been –107). That 35% number is unlikely to be sustained, but it’s been a great first month of picks. Almost one sixth of the way through the season, and we are rolling.
For the NBA future: We began the postseason with 75 units in our NBA futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend one a day over the postseason’s 69 days (if there’s an NBA Finals Game 7). With many payouts coming before the end of the postseason, this will hopefully leave us with at least 25 units on hand at all times should we see an arbitrage opportunity or want to hedge. We’re up 3.79 units so far.
For the NHL future: We began the postseason with 75 units in our NHL futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend one a day over the postseason’s 63 days (if there’s a Stanley Cup Finals Game 7). The idea is the same as the NBA—we’re hoping to always have at least 25 units on hand at all times should we see an arbitrage opportunity or want to hedge. We’re up 0.71 units so far.
Anaheim @ Milwaukee
Corbin Burnes hasn’t had a great start to the year in total, but it’s really just been one bad outing pulling everything in the wrong direction. Against the Mets on April 5th, he allowed two home runs and walked a pair while failing to get out of the fifth. Besides that? He hasn’t been as consistently dominant as he was in 2021, but he’s been a solid pitcher, one whose xERA sits at 3.57 even with the Mets debacle. With his FIP a respectable 4.47, we don’t think there’s anything all that wrong there. We’ll take him to hold off the Angels tonight.
Pick: Milwaukee to win –141. Low confidence. (Detmers and Burnes must start.)
Second Round: New York vs. Miami
We could probably still get this tomorrow, but there isn’t much today we’re worried about missing out on. The only value we’re seeing is on the Heat, the Nuggets, the Sixers, and the Warriors, and we already have a decent amount down on those latter three. That leaves us taking the Heat again, and while this isn’t the longshot it was in the first round, it still gives us some upside on Jimmy Butler. You never mind that.
Pick: Miami to win +135. Low confidence.
Western Conference
Tough for us that the Kraken couldn’t win last night, but if two of the three of them, the Devils, and the Leafs can close out the first round, we should exit it in fine shape. Hopefully the Leafs and Devils take care of business today. (The Kings could also come back, which would also help us.)
Looking ahead, we see value everywhere on Vegas, who also isn’t getting much mention in the broader media. There’s still a chance the Knights could draw the Kings rather than the Oilers in the second round, and even if they don’t, they’ll have home ice advantage and a lot of rest. We’ll put a little more on them here.
Pick: Vegas to win +325. Low confidence.
