Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,318 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We’re relying on Neil Paine’s NBA forecast as the basis for our playoff futures portfolio. We use our own Gelo model as the basis for our NHL playoff futures portfolio.
Active markets today: Major League Baseball moneylines, plus NBA and NHL futures. MLB futures are off ‘til Monday.
Single-day MLB bets: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%, betting strictly moneylines. We’re trying the same approach this year. We’re 21–24 so far, down 3.19 units. We’d had a good back half of April, but the last few days have gone badly.
NBA futures: We’ve only done these once before, but they went well. I believe we made a 7% return on our investment last year. We started at the beginning of the Play-In Tournament with a 100-unit portfolio. Right now, we’re mostly just placing one future per day.
NHL futures: We’ve had mixed results on these. In 2022, we lost 25% of our futures portfolio. Last year, we made a 33% return. We began on the first day of the playoffs with a 100-unit portfolio. Right now, we’re playing just one future per day.
Chicago (NL) @ Boston
As Cubs fans, we love what we’ve seen from Ben Brown so far this year. For our purposes here, though, the xERA is concerning, and we also have some concerns about him going in and out of the rotation. He’s navigated it so well so far, but it’s hard to do.
Pick: Boston to win +102. Low confidence. (Brown and Winckowski must start.)
Western Conference (NBA)
We’re going back to the Nuggets today, even if the price is steep. It’s looking like we’ll have more opportunities down the line for value on the Thunder and Timberwolves. With the Nuggets, the price is only going to get worse as the wins stack up, and if the wins stop stacking, the value we already have on other teams is going to leaves us in a strong position.
Pick: Denver to win –110. Low confidence.
Stanley Cup
We have a couple bets down on the Rangers already, but the value is too good here to pass it up, especially without a lot of good options. Gelo continues to be much higher on the Eastern Conference’s contenders than those in the West. It’s liking the Rangers more than anyone but the Hurricanes, and the Hurricanes come with a much shorter price.
Pick: NY Rangers to win +700. Low confidence.
