Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,830 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,618 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FiveThirtyEight’s models are heavily used in making NBA and soccer futures picks. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Our NHL picks are based on Gelo, our own model.
Just three markets today, as we take the weekends off from MLB futures during almost all of the regular season. Here’s the context on what we’re up to.
On single game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 15–8, we’re up 5.70 units, we’re up 25% (the average line on our winners has been –110). That 25% number is unlikely to be sustained, but it’s been an encouraging few weeks. Can we do 5% from here? 10%? Lot of season to go.
For the NBA future: We began the postseason with 75 units in our NBA futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend one a day over the postseason’s 69 days (if there’s an NBA Finals Game 7). With many payouts coming before the end of the postseason, this will hopefully leave us with at least 25 units on hand at all times should we see an arbitrage opportunity or want to hedge. We’re up 0.29 units so far.
For the NHL future: We began the postseason with 75 units in our NHL futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend one a day over the postseason’s 63 days (if there’s a Stanley Cup Finals Game 7). The idea is the same as the NBA—we’re hoping to always have at least 25 units on hand should we see an arbitrage opportunity or want to hedge.
Los Angeles @ Chicago (NL)
My only holdup here is that the Dodgers are playing their second straight early start away from the West Coast. Beyond that, everything checks out. Hayden Wesneski was great this week in Oakland, but he’s had a hard year overall. Dustin May might be the Dodgers’ best pitcher, and after yesterday’s blowout the bullpen is fresh. We considered the Royals, but they have the opposite time zone problem and longer odds. With comparable value and similar red flags, we’ll take the option likelier to win.
Pick: Los Angeles to win –118. Low confidence. (May and Wesneski must start.)
NBA Finals
We like having futures on both the Celtics and the Sixers, and we currently have two on Philadelphia: One to win the Eastern Conference (+450), one to win the title (+1000). On the Celtics, we only have a previous one to win the title (+275) and now this one.
We aren’t seeing value available on the Celtics in the East, but we are seeing it in the Finals. The loss the other night isn’t good, but it’s not a huge red flag. They should still win this series in five or six games and get through to the next round. In the meantime, we’ll keep hoping on the Heat to eliminate the Bucks or at least make things difficult, and we’ll keep this in the back pocket. Another brick in the wall.
Pick: Boston to win +325. Low confidence.
First Round: Colorado vs. Seattle
We mentioned the Kraken on Thursday, and Gelo still likes them. One explanation—if Gelo is right—is that the market is overrating Colorado’s Stanley Cup last year and underrating the chances of the recent expansion team. We don’t know if that’s right or wrong, but we like it enough to throw this in the mix, especially with our other first-round plays (Los Angeles, Toronto, Vegas) fine or good at the moment.
Pick: Seattle to win +235. Low confidence.
