Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,306 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We’re relying on Neil Paine’s NBA forecast as the basis for our playoff futures portfolio. We use our own Gelo model as the basis for our NHL playoff futures portfolio.
Active markets today: Major League Baseball moneylines, NBA and NHL futures. MLB futures are off for the weekend.
Single-day MLB bets: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%, betting strictly moneylines. We’re trying the same approach this year. We’re 17–17 so far, down 0.54 units. We had a bad start, but we’ve been hotter lately, going 12–7 over the last eight days for a 5.63-unit gain.
NBA futures: We’ve only done these once before, but they went well. I believe we made a 7% return on our investment last year. We started on Tuesday with a 100-unit portfolio. Right now, we’re placing just one future per day.
NHL futures: We’ve had mixed results on these. Volatile results. In 2022, we lost 25% of our futures portfolio. Last year, we made a 33% return. We’re beginning today with a 100-unit portfolio. Right now, we’re playing just one future per day.
Houston @ Washington
Trevor Williams has quietly been really good in the early going, and while we don’t expect him to keep that up, we only need him solid to make this valuable. Yes, Ronel Blanco has been sensational to start the year, but it’s probably too early to count on that out of him.
Pick: Washington to win +155. Low confidence. (Blanco and Williams must start.)
Baltimore @ Kansas City
There’s a world where these two starters are the AL Cy Young’s eventual top two. Corbin Burnes has been a very good version of himself so far for the Orioles. Cole Ragans, though, continues to dazzle. We like him at longer than even odds.
Pick: Kansas City to win +122. Low confidence. (Burnes and Ragans must start.)
Texas @ Atlanta
Nathan Eovaldi’s been great so far, and Charlie Morton’s been good but not outlandishly so. Still, we like Atlanta. Even with Ozzie Albies and Sean Murphy hurt, they are just too good. It is outrageous how good they are.
Pick: Atlanta to win –149. Low confidence. (Eovaldi and Morton must start.)
Western Conference
We don’t love having two futures swimming against the Nuggets in the Western Conference, but we really like the value on the Thunder, who got a pretty good draw playing a Zion-less Pelicans team in the first round. We tend to agree with Paine’s model’s assessment that the Clippers and Mavericks are both overvalued, and we think the market might be underestimating the benefit the Thunder get from home court advantage.
Pick: Oklahoma City to win +600. Low confidence.
Stanley Cup
Nothing too fancy here. Gelo sees a little more value on the Islanders to win the Eastern Conference, but that’s a low-probability play, and Gelo sees a little more value on the Rangers to win the Stanley Cup, but those odds should still be valuable tomorrow, especially if they move a little in the event the Hurricanes win Game 1 this evening. That probability Carolina wins Game 1 is a lot of what this is about. This future might get into trouble quickly, but it’s likelier to appreciate, and it’s already a solid-value play.
Pick: Carolina to win +650. Low confidence.
