Got a little back last night.
One daily MLB moneyline today, plus our weekday MLB futures and our daily NBA and NHL playoff futures.
Atlanta at Washington
The issue here is that the forecast calls for a steady rain in D.C. tonight, beginning right around gametime. Overnight, though, they’re only supposed to get a quarter of an inch, leading us to believe this will be damp more than it’ll be wet. If it is wet? It probably helps us. Trevor Williams’s FIP and xERA are both very good, but we don’t take that to mean he’s as good as those numbers. Rather: We’re not worried about his ERA, and we aren’t worried he’s pitching worse than projections like FanGraphs’s expect him to pitch. So, if there’s a delay or two and the starters get knocked out early, we aren’t going to be crushed. But we’re comfortable with Williams if it does go nine as scheduled.
Pick: Washington to win +138. 15.00 units to win 20.70. Smith-Shawver and Williams must start.
NLCS
We’ve hit a lot of the absurd odds (see: Twins World Series futures) heavy the last two days. Today, then, we’re going to pivot towards teams we think will at least be in the mix. We want to protect our portfolio this year. We can’t be all longshots.
Pick: Philadelphia to win +700. 2.00 units to win 14.00.
World Series
In the same vein, there’s a lot of value on the Yankees right now across the board. We’re taking it here instead of on the division side because the division upside’s so low, but the eROI’s very high there if you’re looking for a semi-safe play. Seeing the Yanks at –220 to win the AL East, and no one else in that division is above .500.
Pick: New York (AL) to win +750. 2.00 units to win 15.00.
NBA Eastern Conference
Our working theory of these NBA playoffs remains that nobody’s that good, and while we do think the Thunder are heads and tails better than everyone else, we’re not sure the Knicks are better than the Pacers. Home-court advantage should matter, but markets keep underestimating Indiana.
Pick: Indiana to win +145. 4.00 units to win 5.80.
NHL Western Conference
How quickly does our model react to results? Yesterday, it had the Hurricanes valuable in the Eastern Conference Finals. After last night’s blowout, it sees positive EV on the Panthers. Markets think these teams are more static than we think they are.
Today, though, it’s more Oilers. Edmonton’s played better than Dallas these playoffs, and while the lack of home-ice advantage hurts, that also gives them an angle to flip things in a heartbeat. We’ll take a little more on the Albertans.
Pick: Edmonton to win –120. 4.00 units to win 3.33.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. We’ll get that Google Sheet up soon which tracks all our bets this year.
2025: –248.09 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025: –6% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 336 single-game markets plus one completed futures portfolio and two partly completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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