The first step in the MLB moneyline pivot worked. We stopped the bleeding. Onto the second step today.
Another MLB moneyline today, plus basketball and hockey futures. We’ll take the day off of baseball futures and do a makeup session tomorrow. As is its custom, the day got away from us.
Atlanta at Pittsburgh
Rather than look for the biggest favorite who’s positive-EV and doesn’t show red flags, we’re looking for the biggest-value play which doesn’t show red flags. That leads us to…*drum roll*…the Pirates.
Is firing a manager a red flag? We don’t think so, actually. Without doing a full study on the effects of mid-season firings and whether it’s possible to categorize them, our prior is that a lot of managers are pretty inconsequential. Maybe we’re missing something big, but that’s a risk we’ll take.
Pick: Pittsburgh to win +131. 15.00 units to win 19.65. Elder and Falter must start.
NBA Finals
We’re on the Thunder again today. They’re flawed, but everyone else is too.
Pick: Oklahoma City to win +130. 2.00 units to win 2.60.
Stanley Cup
Our model continues to really like Winnipeg and Toronto. Toronto holds less upside in our portfolio and is in a better spot in their series.
Pick: Toronto to win +450. 2.00 units to win 9.00.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. We’ll get that Google Sheet up soon which tracks all our bets this year.
2025: –203.08 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025: –5% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 325 single-game markets plus one completed futures portfolio and two partly completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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