Massive work by the Pacers last night, landing our 200-unit NBA futures portfolio a 51-unit return. Good work by the Yankees as well, though that return was smaller.
More MLB moneyline action today, our anti-Rockies run line, and futures: weekday MLB futures and daily NBA and NHL playoff futures.
Texas at Washington
Patrick Corbin pitches in D.C. tonight, and that’s fun and cool. Corbin will always be a Nationals legend, just as we’ll always be grateful to him as 2019 Nationals futures bettors. (Although, considering that encouraged us to keep betting and we’ve never come close to that kind of success since, maybe we should hate Patrick Corbin.)
Corbin’s having a renaissance this year, entering tonight with a 3.71 ERA after four straight full seasons at 5.20 or higher. The problem? First of all, his FIP’s 4.80 and FIP tells you more about a pitcher’s future performance than ERA does. Second, that’s a 126-start sample of terrible ERA’s (and bad FIP’s) against a 10-start sample of a good ERA (and a respectable FIP). The 126 starts tell you more, and while Mike Soroka isn’t special anymore, markets’ refusal to believe both the Rangers’ on-paper numbers and on-field results is bamboozling.
Pick: Washington to win +106. 15.00 units to win 15.90. Corbin and Soroka must start.
New York (NL) at Colorado
Yes, the Rockies swept the Marlins. No, we’re not worried they’ve fixed themselves. Not quite yet. Win this series over the Mets and we might get concerned, though.
Pick: New York –1.5 (–185). 15.00 units to win 8.11. Senga and Senzatela must start.
NL Central
There’s value on the Cubs to win the division again, and they’re 1) a division favorite, which is nice to have in the portfolio and 2) still an unprofitable NL Central scenario for us. We’ll close the gap a little more, with a pull away from the pack a possibility.
Pick: Chicago to win –285. 4.00 units to win 1.40.
NBA Finals
Part of why we liked the Pacers moneyline in Game 1 was that there was so much uncertainty. We hadn’t seen a Western Conference team play an Eastern Conference team since early April. It was a high variability game, and the moneyline/spread gap didn’t reflect that enough.
Back then, we thought the Celtics might be the best team in the NBA. The Knicks had the Celtics beat even before Jayson Tatum went down. The Pacers beat the Knicks. Maybe the Pacers really are good enough to win this series?
We don’t think these Pacers are better than this Thunder team. But we do think the June 2025 Pacers might be better than the June 2025 Thunder. These odds are long enough to take a shot, especially when that shot leaves our portfolio looking like this:
| Winner | Games | Total |
| Pacers | 6 or 7 | 95.9 |
| Pacers | 5 | 78.3 |
| Thunder | 6 or 7 | 73.44 |
| Pacers | 4 | 58.74 |
| Thunder | 5 | 55.84 |
Pick: Indiana to win +263. 12.00 units to win 31.56.
Stanley Cup
You can recognize teams make adjustments without believing the Panthers should magically be favored tonight just because they lost Game 1.
Our model likes the Oilers. Tonight and to win this series.
Here are the new portfolio scenarios. Could really use another Oilers win.
| Winner | Games | Total |
| Oilers | Under 5.5 | 50.59 |
| Oilers | 6 | 22.84 |
| Oilers | Over 6.5 | 15.67 |
| Panthers | Under 5.5 | -48.19 |
| Panthers | 6 | -75.94 |
| Panthers | Over 6.5 | -83.11 |
Pick: Edmonton to win series –200. 6.00 units to win 3.00.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025: –309.23 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025: –7% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 363 single-game markets plus one completed futures portfolio and two partly completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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