Another very bad day yesterday. That’s two of ‘em, back to back. And there isn’t all that much upside tonight!
More MLB moneyline action today, the Rockies, and our daily NHL playoff futures. No MLB or NBA futures today. We’ll make up MLB futures on Saturday. We’ll approach the NBA futures tomorrow from where we stand. Thankfully, we’re in a great place on those.
Philadelphia at Miami
If you’re going to make a lot out of Jesús Luzardo possibly tipping his pitches in those two recent starts, you should probably make a lot out of him striking out ten Cubs last week.
Pick: Philadelphia to win –163. 15.00 units to win 9.20. Luzardo and Quantrill must start.
Colorado at Washington
For those wondering, we’ve lost 59.15 units so far betting against the Rockies on the run line.
Pick: Washington –1.5 (+102). 15.00 units to win 15.30. Senzatela and Soroka must start.
Stanley Cup Finals
I don’t want to write out our full math on this, because we’re making huge assumptions (first that the Panthers would be an even-money bet in Game 7 and second that our model would at least lean towards them), but we ran the numbers on three different approaches: Keep incrementally betting the Panthers, keeping 21.69 more units on hand in case there’s a Game 7; go all-in now on the Panthers; or hold out in the hopes of getting a Game 7 which could give us the biggest Panthers upside. The expected value was roughly equal with all three approaches. The best EV, though, was to keep betting incrementally.
So, with a 42.31-unit deficit on the books right now, here are our portfolio’s overall scenarios, entering Game 6. If the Panthers win it tonight, we’ll at least make back most of our losses. If they don’t…ruh roh.
| Result | Probability | Total |
| Panthers in 6 | 56.6% | -4.25 |
| Oilers in 7 | 24.3% | -53.33 |
| Panthers in 7 | 19.1% | -124.99 |
Pick: Florida to win –340. 7.00 units to win 2.06.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025: –332.27 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025: –7% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 386 single-game markets plus one completed futures portfolio and two partly completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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