We made our layups yesterday. That’s key.
Another MLB moneyline today, more against the Rockies, our weekday MLB futures, and our daily NHL and NBA playoff futures. Let’s get into it.
Washington at Seattle
We’re having to stretch a little here, specifically on the injury/bullpen front, but the value should be positive. We’re still Mitchell Parker believers, even with the recent run of short starts.
Pick: Washington to win +140. 15.00 units to win 21.00. Parker and Evans must start.
Colorado at Chicago (NL)
No change to this approach. Not yet. We’re wary, but we’re going ahead with it for now.
(We do think the books might be overrating the impact of the wind blowing in. As it goes with air masses: The Rockies dictate Mother Nature. Not the other way around.)
Pick: Chicago –1.5 (–140). 15.00 units to win 10.71. Márquez and Horton must start.
NBA Finals
This isn’t pretty and it doesn’t do a ton for us, but the value’s there, and while we like the Pacers we don’t want ot get too far over our skis on them. Our portfolio’s currently fine as long as the Pacers make the Finals. If they miss the Finals, we’re in some trouble. This is a little step towards alleviating that.
Pick: Oklahoma City to win –375. 5.00 units to win 1.33.
NHL Eastern Conference
Our model still doesn’t see any value in futures markets, so we’re parking today’s units on the Panthers to get through this Carolina series. It’s very likely to happen, and it’s not so many units to where this is reckless and dumb.
Pick: Florida to win –1100. 4.00 units to win 0.36.
World Series
This is our seventh year betting MLB futures, and I don’t remember another time the best value on the board was on two of the four or five favorites. We’ll take it.
Pick: New York (AL) to win +750. 2.00 units to win 15.00.
Pick: Philadelphia to win +1100. 2.00 units to win 22.00.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. We’ll get that Google Sheet up soon which tracks all our bets this year.
2025: –272.77 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025: –6% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 345 single-game markets plus one completed futures portfolio and two partly completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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