When the White Sox made it to the eleventh with a pitcher hitting…well, the assumption was still that they would lose. But it was impressive that they made it that far!
More MLB moneyline action today, some motorsports, and our daily NBA and NHL playoff futures.
Pittsburgh at Chicago (NL)
People have stopped noticing Mitch Keller again.
Pick: Pittsburgh to win +149. 15.00 units to win 22.35. Keller and Rea must start.
NBA Finals
It’s the same story here as the last few days: The series odds and the single-game moneylines don’t match. Our bet is that the moneylines are closer to correct. Those are usually highly efficient markets, and in this case they’re not weighed down by a season’s worth of futures liabilities at the sportsbooks. We’re not above chasing a 20% return.
The new scenarios for our 200-unit portfolio, which enters Game 5 up 73.7 units:
| Winner | Games | Total |
| Thunder | 6 | 102.04 |
| Pacers | 6 | 82.87 |
| Thunder | 7 | 48.86 |
| Pacers | 7 | 29.69 |
Pick: Oklahoma City to win –500. 17.00 units to win 3.40.
Stanley Cup Finals
Our model agrees with the market on the pricing for just about every market left in this series. For our portfolio, though, it makes more sense to put a few drops in the Panthers bucket. This leaves us with 35.69 units to play with, a 42.31-unit deficit, and the following scenarios for our portfolio as a whole given what we’ve bet so far.
| Result | Probability | Total |
| Panthers in 6 | 56.6% | -8.37 |
| Oilers in 7 | 24.3% | -39.33 |
| Panthers in 7 | 19.1% | -129.11 |
Pick: Florida to win –350. 7.00 units to win 2.00.
F1: Canadian Grand Prix
F1’s pretty straightforward, but it’s hard to get a read on today. George Russell starts on the pole, but he hasn’t won yet this year. Max Verstappen starts second, but Oscar Piastri—who starts third—has been better than him.
The four most believable scenarios for the top-two order are, in some order: Russell/Verstappen, Verstappen/Russell, Piastri/Verstappen, and Verstappen/Piastri. If Russell’s good enough to stay up front, his track position should carry the day. If he isn’t, both Piastri and Verstappen should wind up ahead of him. That’s where this is coming from. We think it’s more than the necessary 75% shot.
Pick: Max Verstappen to finish top two –300. 9.00 units to win 3.00.
NASCAR Cup Series: Viva Mexico 250
Daniel Suárez is starting in the top ten and got even more familiarity with this track yesterday, winning the Xfinity race. One of his two career Cup Series wins came at a road course. We like him to compete today.
Pick: Daniel Suárez to finish top five +285. 3.00 units to win 8.55.
IndyCar: Bommarito Automotive Group 500
We didn’t know, post-scandal, whether Team Penske would still dominate ovals. We still don’t know. But they qualified 1–2, and the first five cars are all Chevrolets. The last few years, that’s usually been a winning bet.
Pick: Chevrolet to win –325. 19.50 units to win 6.00.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025: –267.77 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025: –5% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 380 single-game markets plus one completed futures portfolio and two partly completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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