The Rockies foiled us again. Kind of glad they have a day off today. Elsewhere, we got some payouts from conference finals futures.
Another MLB moneyline today, our weekday MLB futures, and our daily NHL and NBA playoff futures. Off we go.
Game 1: Atlanta at Philadelphia
We’ve lost two in a row, which means betting a big favorite today to stop the bleeding. Unfortunately, there are no big favorites. We’ll take the Phillies in Game 1 instead, with Sánchez vs. Smith-Shawver probably a mismatch. Smith-Shawver’s xERA was already concerning before the Nationals shelled him last week.
Pick: Philadelphia to win –132. 15.00 units to win 11.36. Smith-Shawver and Sánchez must start.
NBA Eastern Conference
The upside isn’t there, but the value is (narrowly). Hopefully they wrap it up tonight. At this point, our portfolio effectively has 34 units on the Pacers to win this series, with a prospective payout of 16.72. That’d be enough to have us profitable going into the Finals, where our portfolio would effectively have a 6-unit bet on the Thunder which would pay 15.10.
Pick: Indiana to win –690. 5.00 units to win 0.72.
Stanley Cup
Our model still sees the value on Edmonton, at least for now. Odds seem to imply that the markets will have the Stanley Cup Finals as a tossup, but if Edmonton wins in five, Gelo will have them a narrow favorite.
Pick: Edmonton to win +115. 4.00 units to win 4.60.
NL West
More on the Dodgers today, with that situation unchanged. We’d love them to be a profitable scenario for our portfolio in some market. Ideally, that’d be a postseason market, where the odds aren’t 1-to-6, but we’ll take what we can get.
Pick: Los Angeles to win –600. 4.00 units to win 0.67.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. We’ll get that Google Sheet up soon which tracks all our bets this year.
2025: –330.19 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025: –7% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 349 single-game markets plus one completed futures portfolio and two partly completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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