Our latest MLB losing streak is up to four games. That’s a problem.
Today: Our daily MLB moneyline, our weekday MLB futures, and our daily NBA and NHL playoff futures.
Sacramento at Texas
We’ll probably extend that losing streak to five, but the upside here is good and there aren’t many good options today. The A’s are evidently going with a bullpen game, and their bullpen’s a little depleted, but the Rangers just aren’t that good, and Jacob deGrom’s strikeout numbers are down, which doesn’t really factor into this decision but does give it a vote of confidence.
Pick: Sacramento to win +175. 15.00 units to win 26.25. Lopez and deGrom must start.
AL East
Our profitability dance continues in the AL East. With the Red Sox flashing positive value today (per FanGraphs’s Playoff Odds), we’re taking them, pushing them up to a +1.00-unit scenario. This bumps the Yankees down to a –0.45-unit scenario while leaving the Rays and Jays more profitable. We’re expecting to get another shot at the Yankees. If we want to do more from there we can, but in all likelihood, that shot will come at longer than –200 odds and we’ll have the AL East cornered, albeit in a pretty low-upside way.
Pick: Boston to win +300. 2.00 units to win 6.00.
World Series
In bigger value, we like Atlanta’s price here. The Braves are still in trouble, below .500 and staring at four serious Wild Card contenders across the NL East and NL West. But the roster is so good on paper that the upside remains great. If they do get hot, they could get hotter than just about anyone.
Pick: Atlanta to win +1600. 2.00 units to win 32.00.
NHL Eastern Conference
The Senators did win one, but Gelo has the Leafs as the best team in hockey, and watching the performances of the other playoff teams, that passes the smell test for now. Nobody’s looked great so far these playoffs. Nobody’s played consistent, dominant hockey. The Leafs, though, might be the closest to it.
Pick: Toronto to win +400. 2.00 units to win 8.00.
First Round: Denver vs. LA Clippers
We don’t trust the Clippers, and we don’t like that they have to play two games in Denver as they get tired. But they’re the better team in this series, and they aren’t at a matchup disadvantage. Play their game, and they should get through this round.
Pick: LA Clippers to win –165. 2.00 units to win 1.21.
**
I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. We’ll get that Google Sheet up soon which tracks all our bets this year.
2025: –150.72 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025: –4% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 311 single-game markets plus one completed futures portfolio and one barely completed futures portfolio)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
**
