Editor’s Note: For almost two years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of greatness (the Nationals winning the World Series last year, the first two months of last college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the second two months of last college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 5% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,037 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 5% might not be a great annual return on overall investments, if you strategize well with timing, you can turn daily 5%’s into a whole lot more than 5% over the course of a year.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas Consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. The blurbs aren’t always explanations of the picks—sometimes they are, but often they’re just notes related to the contest, to avoid redundancy. Data and predictions from FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Data from Baseball Savant and ESPN is also often used with those. Data from Bill Connelly’s SP+ is heavily used in making College Football picks.
Chicago (AL) @ Cleveland
They’re saying Tim Anderson’s hamstring issue yesterday was a cramp. If that’s the case, one would assume he’ll be fine today, and he is leading off. Even if he does go out there slightly hobbled, he’d have to drag the White Sox down by 0.8 runs for it to make this even a middling play. Full steam ahead.
Pick: Over 8 (-120). Low confidence.
Tampa Bay @ New York (NL)
They’re saying Jacob deGrom’s hamstring issue in his last start was a spasm. As with Anderson, the assumption would then be that deGrom’s fine today, in what should be his second-to-last start of the season as he tries to keep the Mets’ faint playoff hopes alive.
Pick: New York (NL) to win -190. Low confidence.
Miami @ Atlanta
Something that would help the Mets’ playoff push would be a Miami loss. The Reds, Brewers, and Giants are more immediately in the Mets’ view—all two and a half games ahead—but it’s not impossible for the Marlins to blow this, and they’re only four ahead of the Mets, with this weekend’s series coming against the Yankees.
Miami’s justifiably an underdog here, but the odds are longer than they should be. While Trevor Rogers has struggled with command, he’s also been very hard to hit. He’s in the top ten percent of the league in xBA, and his xwOBA’s 71 points better than his wOBA. Don’t be shocked to see his luck turn around, and with the full Miami bullpen likely available, minus Brandon Kintzler, don’t be concerned if Rogers exits early, as he did his last time out.
Pick: Miami to win +145. Low confidence.
