Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.8% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 5,334 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.6% across 1,739 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Movelor is heavily used in making college football picks, with some references to ESPN’s FPI and SP+. FPI is heavily used in making NFL picks, especially futures.
Today’s MLB futures and one NFL pick. Here’s the context on each.
MLB futures: We began the season with 750 units in our MLB futures portfolio. This is circular, because we use FanGraphs probabilities to guide our picks, but if we use FanGraphs probabilities and include today’s plays, our mean expected return on those 750 units is 91.96 units, or 12.3%.
Single-game NFL bets: On the season, we’re 4–9–5, we’re down 5.54 units, we’re down 31%. We’ve been getting smoked, but we did win yesterday.
Division Series: Houston vs. Minnesota
It would be better for us if Minnesota won this series, but that’s part of why we’re placing this. If the Dodgers come back and the Rangers finish off the Orioles, we’re in some trouble. That’s the scenario against which we need to hedge. This is part of how we’re doing it, and we don’t have to sacrifice value here. The Astros are the better team, even if they’re playing on the road, even they have to beat either Pablo López or Sonny Gray to win this series. Four units.
Pick: Houston to win –113. Medium confidence. x2
ALCS
We’re also doing it in this market, where the value’s even better. Six units here, and we’re laying up this much so we can keep the Rangers a profitable scenario within the ALCS market itself. That’s a little arbitrary, but given we aren’t sure of the best way to hedge (we aren’t lining up all 128 remaining scenarios just yet), we think a mixture is the move.
Pick: Houston to win +225. Medium confidence. x3
Green Bay @ Las Vegas
I get it, the Packers aren’t very good and they also don’t have Aaron Jones tonight. But few teams have looked as incompetent as the Raiders in the early going this year, and the Packers have had an extra three days to prepare. We don’t expect anything pretty, but we don’t see a better play for tonight.
Pick: Green Bay +2 (–110). Low confidence.
