Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of +0.1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 5,588 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +4.1% across 1,950 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us). We are profitable all-time, but only narrowly.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Movelor is heavily used in making college football picks, with some references to ESPN’s FPI and SP+. FPI is heavily used in making NFL picks, but mostly futures.
We’ve got today’s MLB futures and a pick for Monday Night Football. Here’s the context on each market.
MLB futures: We began the season with 750 units in our MLB futures portfolio. Using FanGraphs probabilities and including today’s plays, our mean expected final return on those 750 units is 127.27 units, or 17.0%.
Single-game NFL bets: On the season, we’re 8–14–5; we’re down 6.99 units; and we’re down 26%.
World Series
This is a continuation of yesterday’s hedge, and that was a continuation of other hedges early in this series, and those were continuations of previous hedges on the Rangers this postseason. It’s been a long process, but we’ve gotten ourselves to a place where if we make no more bets and the Diamondbacks win this World Series, we make a 273.39-unit profit on our futures over the season, whereas if we make no more and the Rangers win this series, we suffer a 9.79-unit loss on our futures over the season. That means that as long as the Rangers’ odds tomorrow morning are at –2790 or shorter, we can hedge ourselves into breaking even. They will be much shorter than –2790, and ideally, they’ll be around +300. Ideally, the Diamondbacks win Game 3 and help us out.
Pick: Texas to win –126. Medium confidence. x12
Las Vegas @ Detroit
Before the line dropped to 7, we were looking at the under, and I was shocked in that examination to find how badly the Raiders’ defense grades out. I thought it was respectable. Now I feel even worse about the Packers.
Anyway, with that in mind and now seeing where the line’s landing, this seems like one where the goal is to not overthink it. The Lions are a good team coming off a bad week. They might be flawed, but they’re not bad. The Raiders are bad. (On both sides of the ball, it turns out.)
Pick: Detroit –7 (–110). Low confidence.
