Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -4% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 2,836 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% across 762 completed high and medium-confidence picks.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Gelo hit its under yesterday, moving back to profitability on the playoffs. More from it today (for the futures, we’re aiming to invest 100 units in total but we have another 100 set aside in case we need it), plus a return of MLB futures, as it is Monday (520 set to be invested over the regular season on those, with an additional 520 in reserve for October and hedging).
Colorado @ Nashville
Gelo’s had a poor grasp on this series so far—or so it seems—and the possible absence of Darcy Kuemper tonight throws this further into doubt. Still, our options are either to sit today out on daily bets, go after a moneyline (where results have been poor overall), take this, or take the Flames/Stars over where the Gelo gap is much smaller and the odds are comparable. We’ll give this a shot.
Pick: Under 6.5 (+107). Low confidence.
Eastern Conference
We’re having to double up on someone again, and today it’s the Penguins, on whom we have just a small first-round future that doesn’t pay much. There’s good value in a lot of places (according to Gelo, which we should stress is very much in testing mode), but this is one that works particularly well with our portfolio.
Pick: Pittsburgh to win +1000. Low confidence.
Stanley Cup
Finally some value on the Lightning, which leaves us with holes only on the Panthers, Avalanche, and Flames. Hopefully the two of those trailing in their first round series go quietly.
Pick: Tampa Bay to win +1400. Low confidence.
ALCS
I’m not sure how much longer there’ll be value on the Yankees in this market, so with a long way to go, we’ll stock up on them. The Astros are the most valuable play we’re seeing available right now, so we’ll dip deeper in on them as well.
Pick: New York to win +350. Medium confidence.
Pick: Houston to win +500. Medium confidence.
