Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,874 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,618 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FiveThirtyEight’s models are heavily used in making NBA and soccer futures picks. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Our NHL picks are based on Gelo, our own model.
Back to all four markets today. Here’s where we’re at with each.
On single-game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 25–14, we’re up 9.35 units, we’re up 24% (the average line on our winners has been –107). Last week wasn’t a good one, but the season-long track record is great.
For the MLB futures: We began the season with 750 units in our MLB futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities.
For the NBA future: We began the postseason with 75 units in our NBA futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend one a day over the postseason’s 69 days (if there’s an NBA Finals Game 7). With many payouts coming before the end of the postseason, this will hopefully leave us with at least 25 units on hand at all times should we see an arbitrage opportunity or want to hedge. We’re up 4.74 units so far.
For the NHL future: We began the postseason with 75 units in our NHL futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend one a day over the postseason’s 63 days (if there’s a Stanley Cup Finals Game 7). The idea is the same as the NBA—we’re hoping to always have at least 25 units on hand at all times should we see an arbitrage opportunity or want to hedge. We’re up 0.29 units so far.
Los Angeles @ Milwaukee
The Dodgers played in San Diego last night, which means they probably took a red-eye to Milwaukee. Tony Gonsolin’s xERA and FIP are both worse than his ERA, which means he’s probably due for some regression. Both teams have used a lot of their best bullpen guys, but Los Angeles has more who should be unavailable, which means against the Brewers’ arguable ace, with an already short-outing starter on the mound working his way back from injury, the Dodgers are probably eying this as something of a recovery game.
They want to win them all.
But they don’t always manage that way.
Pick: Milwaukee to win –115. Low confidence. (Gonsolin and Peralta must start.)
AL East
The Rays weathered a few potent Yankees rallies over the weekend, and they still won the series, stretching their lead to ten whole games over New York. The Blue Jays are the primary threat now, and even with a .600 win percentage, Toronto is seven games back. It’s not late in the season yet, but we’re getting to the point where the standings mean a lot. Seven games is so many games. More than a week’s worth, on average.
Pick: Tampa Bay to win –170. Medium confidence.
NLCS
No, these odds are not too short. To justify taking them, Atlanta needs to only have about a 30% chance of winning the pennant. They’re over 90% likely right now to receive a bye to the Division Series. That leaves them only needing to be a 58% favorite in each of the NLDS and NLCS to hit the 30% number. They’re routinely favored by far more than that in single-game moneylines, and randomness decreases as sample size increases, which it will in a 3-to-7-game series.
Pick: Atlanta to win +250. Medium confidence.
Second Round: Denver vs. Phoenix
We’re obviously concerned about the Nuggets after they dropped both games in Phoenix, but we’re far from panicked. They’re the better team and they still have home-court advantage. The Suns are playing better, but it’s not like it was two straight games of outright domination in Arizona. We like the Nuggets to get it done, and we’re willing to put even more on them right now. Especially with the leverage we’ve created for ourselves via the Heat.
Pick: Denver to win –165. Low confidence.
Second Round: Toronto vs. Florida
This is a little silly, but these odds are a lot silly, and an 11% return isn’t nothing, and the Panthers are a lot likelier to close this series out than the odds are implying. To slightly oversimplify the math: For this to be a bad play, the Panthers would have to be less than 42% likely to win every individual game the rest of the series. The two potential games in Toronto do affect this, but it’s hard to see the gulf being that wide. The Panthers are probably better than the Leafs right now. Period.
We’re putting two units on this, to build a little extra leverage in the second round section of our portfolio, where—to put this in poker terms—so long as the Panthers hit, we have outs on both the Hurricanes and the Kraken right now to make us profitable on the round. Both those teams also lead their series. We’re in a good spot.
Pick: Florida to win –900. Low confidence. x2
