Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,344 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We’re relying on Neil Paine’s NBA forecast as the basis for our playoff futures portfolio. We use our own Gelo model as the basis for our NHL playoff futures portfolio.
Active markets today: Major League Baseball moneylines, plus MLB, NBA, and NHL futures.
Single-day MLB bets: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%, betting strictly moneylines. We’re trying the same approach this year. We’re 25–31 so far, down 6.35 units. We started poorly, we rallied, and we’re on another cold stretch now. We’re changing the approach a little bit today, hoping to spark greatness and earn ourselves eternal wealth.
MLB futures: We have a great history with these, though the last two years we’ve only made small profits. In both 2019 and 2021, I believe we recorded better than a 50% ROI. In 2020, we lost about 25% of our portfolio. We began this season with 750 units in our portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. We place two medium-confidence bets most weekdays until sometime in September when the scenarios become more specific.
NBA futures: We’ve only done these once before, but they went well. I believe we made a 7% return on our investment last year. We started at the beginning of the Play-In Tournament with a 100-unit portfolio. Right now, we’re mostly just placing one future per day. We’re up 2.79 units so far.
NHL futures: We’ve had mixed results on these. In 2022, we lost 25% of our futures portfolio. Last year, we made a 33% return. We began on the first day of the playoffs with a 100-unit portfolio. Right now, we’re mostly placing just one future per day. We’re down one unit so far.
Seattle @ Minnesota
The Mariners used a lot of bullpen yesterday in their dramatic series clincher in Houston. Still, we like Luis Castillo a lot, and while futures markets are still undervaluing the Twins, daily markets are pretty accurate on them. That’s not a concern we’re worried about.
Pick: Seattle to win –111. Low confidence. (Castillo and Woods Richardson must start.)
Milwaukee @ Kansas City
Again, the Royals used a lot of bullpen, but Gary Sánchez—who should theoretically start today, going against a lefty—is nursing something involving his hamstring, and Cole Ragans is a stopper right now. He’s only had three or four bad outings since joining the Royals’ rotation last July. We trust him in a series opener after two straight Royals defeats.
Pick: Kansas City to win –135. Low confidence. (Wilson and Ragans must start.)
Miami @ Los Angeles
This is aggressive. Walker Buehler is making his first MLB start in almost two years, and Roddery Muñoz has some good numbers in his small sample this year. Still, it’s Dodgers vs. Marlins, Muñoz’s numbers mostly come from a start in Miami against the Rockies, and the Dodgers have been abundantly cautious with bringing Buehler back. His bullpen is fresh behind him. We think LA takes care of it tonight, getting us profitable on the day even if we split the first two.
Pick: Los Angeles to win –290. Low confidence. (Muñoz and Buehler must start.)
AL Central
The Twins’ win streak finally ended, and they’re still in second place by multiple games. Still, their value has appreciated dramatically over the last two weeks, and the market hasn’t kept up. This is a good price.
Pick: Minnesota to win +160. Medium confidence.
NL Central
The Cubs’ improvement of their status has been less dramatic, but they’ve been quietly hot, going 8–5 over their last 13 to pull within percentage points of the Brewers in the division. This bet flips the Cubs to a profitable outcome for us in the NL Central market, and while it flips the Cardinals to unprofitable, at this point that’s an exchange we’ll gladly make.
Pick: Chicago (NL) to win +140. Medium confidence.
Second Round: Oklahoma City vs. Dallas
We have upside already on both the Thunder (effectively 2 to win 8.25 in the Western Conference) and the Timberwolves (effectively 3 to win 6 in the Western Conference). We’ve worked to limit our downside on the Nuggets. Our adjusted version of Neil Paine’s probabilities is flashing positive eROI on the Mavs here. We’re going to take it. It doesn’t lock us into profit in the West or anything—there are a lot of routes where we could end up in trouble—but it raises our floor. At this point, our floor is pretty high for a futures portfolio.
Pick: Dallas to win +110. Low confidence.
Second Round: NY Rangers vs. Carolina
We have so much already down on the Rangers that we’re hesitant to place more, but at some point, we have to pull the trigger. The Rangers have a 1–0 lead, have home-ice advantage in the series, won the Presidents’ Trophy, and are favored by the same amount as the Stars against the Avalanche. This is silly. We’ll take the risk.
Pick: NY Rangers to win –125. Low confidence.
