Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -4% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 2,808 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% across 762 completed high and medium-confidence picks.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
More MLB futures today, as we close out the week and rise to 76 of 520 units invested (with 520 more units in reserve, waiting for October or September hedging), as well as our first NHL bets of the season, with 100 units dedicated to futures on that front (and another 100 in reserve for potential hedging down the line).
NLCS
There’s value available on the Brewers today, and we’re going to take it. Their pitching staff is the deepest it’s ever been, the Cardinals’ relative struggles have the division looking clearly like Milwaukee’s for the taking, and they’ll make the deals for bats when the time comes. Which might even be soon. The Brewers are a Pennant contender, which by turn…
Pick: Milwaukee to win +700. Medium confidence.
World Series
…makes them a World Series contender. Value here too.
Pick: Milwaukee to win +1500. Medium confidence.
St. Louis Blues @ Minnesota Wild
Gelo views this as the best over/under of the night. We’ll test it out.
Pick: Under 6.5 (-120). Low confidence.
Boston Bruins @ Carolina Hurricanes
Similarly, at this moment Gelo views Carolina as the best moneyline play available to us.
Pick: Carolina to win -120. Low confidence.
NHL Western Conference
Gelo is cold on the Avalanche. Cold, cold, cold. Is this reasonable? We probably aren’t the ones to ask, but the purpose of this is to test things. One of the heartening things about these being the first two recommended plays is that while it’s the Avalanche Gelo’s cold on, the Avalanche are not the first round opponent of either of these two. Which gives us a little space to operate with.
Pick: Minnesota to win +800. Low confidence.
Pick: Los Angeles to win +3300. Low confidence.
