Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,940 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,618 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FiveThirtyEight’s models are heavily used in making NBA and soccer futures picks. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Our NHL picks are based on Gelo, our own model.
All four markets today. Here’s what we do in each.
On single-game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 35–25, we’re up 5.81 units, we’re up 10% (the average line on our winners has been –114). May hasn’t been a great month, but we’re profitable over the last two weeks.
For the MLB futures: We began the season with 750 units in our MLB futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities.
For the NBA future: We began the postseason with 75 units in our NBA futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend one a day over the postseason’s 69 days (if there’s an NBA Finals Game 7). With many payouts coming before the end of the postseason, this will hopefully leave us with at least 25 units on hand at all times should we see an arbitrage opportunity or want to hedge. We’re up 7.63 units so far.
For the NHL future: We began the postseason with 75 units in our NHL futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend one a day over the postseason’s 63 days (if there’s a Stanley Cup Finals Game 7). The idea is the same as the NBA—we’re hoping to always have at least 25 units on hand at all times should we see an arbitrage opportunity or want to hedge. We’re up 5.03 units so far.
Minnesota @ Houston
We don’t love taking the road team in a day game after a flight, but this is late enough in the afternoon and J.P. France is suspicious enough (no pedigree, fine results but not great until last start) that we sense some overvaluation of the Astros. We’ll go with Sonny Gray.
Pick: Minnesota to win +113. Low confidence. (Gray and France must start.)
AL East
There’s value on the Yankees today, and even with the Rays playing so spectacularly well, we’re going to take it. The Yankees always have upside until the trade deadline, and despite sitting only in third in the AL East, they have the seventh-best record in all of baseball. That plays.
Pick: New York (AL) to win +550. Medium confidence.
AL Central
Alongside our division underdog pick, though, we’re adding an anchor, as we often do. We still like the Twins to get it done in the Central, not because they’re better than their basically .500 selves, but because .500 might be enough.
Pick: Minnesota to win –175. Medium confidence.
NBA Finals
We’re putting one more unit on the Celtics before Game 7, and this is not a hedge. FiveThirtyEight likes the Celtics in the hypothetical series with the Nuggets, which isn’t new. We’d greatly prefer the Heat to win tonight, but if it’s the Celtics, we do at least have some upside on them.
Pick: Boston to win +140. Low confidence.
Stanley Cup (Hedge)
We’re fine with where we’ve left ourselves in the Western Conference Finals, but we’ll be hedging this direction either way that series turns out. This is the only play that makes much sense for us today.
Pick: Florida to win +100. Low confidence.
