Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,392 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We’re relying on Neil Paine’s NBA forecast as the basis for our playoff futures portfolio. We use our own Gelo model as the basis for our NHL playoff futures portfolio.
Active markets today: Major League Baseball moneylines, plus MLB, NBA, and NHL futures.
Single-day MLB bets: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%, betting strictly moneylines. We’ve tried a similar approach this year. We’re 43–50 so far, down 11.75 units. It is going terribly. We did win yesterday, though. And for better or worse, there is a lot of season left.
MLB futures: We have a great history with these, though the last two years we’ve only made small profits. In both 2019 and 2021, I believe we recorded better than a 50% ROI. In 2020, we lost about 25% of our portfolio. We began this season with 750 units in our portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. We place two medium-confidence bets most weekdays until sometime in September when the scenarios become more specific.
NBA futures: We’ve only done these once before, but they went well. I believe we made a 7% return on our investment last year. We started at the beginning of the Play-In Tournament with a 100-unit portfolio. Right now, we’re mostly just placing one future per day. We’re up 2.67 units so far.
NHL futures: We’ve had mixed results on these. In 2022, we lost 25% of our futures portfolio. Last year, we made a 33% return. We began on the first day of the playoffs with a 100-unit portfolio. Right now, we’re mostly placing just one future per day. We’re down 2.20 units so far.
Chicago (NL) @ Milwaukee
The Cubs played until close to midnight last night in St. Louis. Now, they turn around for a day game in Milwaukee against a rookie pitcher who’s been getting solid results. Justin Steele, meanwhile, might be unlucky, but even if you chalk his home run results up to luck, he’s only been good, not great. That’s not a criticism—it’s just not a red flag.
Pick: Milwaukee to win –110. Low confidence. (Steele and Gasser must start.)
NLCS
The markets haven’t caught up to the Cardinals yet amidst their recent surge. They’re 10–2 in their last twelve and a serious enough contender in the Central to take at these odds. Very good value here.
Pick: St. Louis to win +4500. Medium confidence.
World Series
Even better value here, where at some books the Cards are available at 100-to-1. It’s a longshot, but that’s why we do portfolios.
Pick: St. Louis to win +10000. Medium confidence.
NBA Finals
The Mavericks going up 3–0 is rough for us. They’ve been a big liability for this portfolio, and they’re moving on. We’ll most likely enter the Finals down about eight units.
Still, we see value here on the Celtics, and we do have enough upside on the Celtics to still end this postseason with a profitable NBA portfolio. It would help us if the Wolves forced a Game 5, but if it’s Celtics/Mavs, we have our out, and it’s the likeliest scenario.
Pick: Boston to win –220. Low confidence.
NHL Western Conference
The Rangers going up 2–1 is huge for us, opening the door for some hedging if we need to do that after tonight. We’re hoping for a Stars win, since the Oilers are our big liability, but if the Oilers do win, we should have the leverage to grab more Panthers upside and balance out the risk.
Pick: Dallas to win –107. Low confidence.
