Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,899 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,618 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FiveThirtyEight’s models are heavily used in making NBA and soccer futures picks. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Our NHL picks are based on Gelo, our own model.
It’s Monday, so we’re back to all four markets. Here’s what’s happening in each.
On single-game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 31–22, we’re up 5.84 units, we’re up 11% (the average line on our winners has been –111). It’s been a good start to the year, and while May hasn’t been a great month, we did post a positive return last week.
For the MLB futures: We began the season with 750 units in our MLB futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities.
For the NBA future: We began the postseason with 75 units in our NBA futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend one a day over the postseason’s 69 days (if there’s an NBA Finals Game 7). With many payouts coming before the end of the postseason, this will hopefully leave us with at least 25 units on hand at all times should we see an arbitrage opportunity or want to hedge. We’re up 5.27 units so far.
For the NHL future: We began the postseason with 75 units in our NHL futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend one a day over the postseason’s 63 days (if there’s a Stanley Cup Finals Game 7). The idea is the same as the NBA—we’re hoping to always have at least 25 units on hand at all times should we see an arbitrage opportunity or want to hedge. We’re up 0.73 units so far.
Chicago (AL) @ Cleveland
This appears to be a vibes line. The Guardians had a bad weekend. The White Sox had a good weekend. The Guardians, though, managed to preserve a lot of bullpen yesterday across the doubleheader sweep, and Hunter Gaddis has been much more effective at the MLB level so far this year than his ERA implies. We’ll take Cleveland to get back on track, at least for a night.
Pick: Cleveland to win –119. Low confidence. (Lambert and Gaddis must start.)
ALCS
Both our MLB futures today are on the ALCS market. The first goes to the Yankees because it makes them a comfortably profitable scenario again and there’s positive value. The second goes to the Rangers because it’s the third-highest-value option available on the board right now and we have plenty down on the Giants already. We like the idea of generating a few American League moonshot routes.
Pick: New York (AL) to win +600. Medium confidence.
Pick: Texas to win +1200. Medium confidence.
NBA Finals
This is not a hedge. It functions like one, but we just think the numbers are off here.
We’re one Boston upset away from the Celtics being back to being favored in every game remaining this series. It will be wild if they actually win this series, but it’s possible, and if they do it, they’ll be back to being nearly favored in the Finals. We have so much upside on the Heat that this is an easy bet to place (and we still vastly prefer the Heat to win this series), but we do see value in it, independently of that.
Pick: Boston to win +1400. Low confidence.
Stanley Cup
This is also not a hedge. We just think this is where the value lies.
We’re doubling down on Vegas yet again, and we plan to keep making these sorts of plays until either both the Hurricanes and Stars get back into their series or we have our Stanley Cup Finals matchup set. We’re in a great place with our portfolio, and we’re going to act like it.
Pick: Vegas to win +150. Low confidence.
