Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,384 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We’re relying on Neil Paine’s NBA forecast as the basis for our playoff futures portfolio. We use our own Gelo model as the basis for our NHL playoff futures portfolio.
Active markets today: Major League Baseball moneylines, plus MLB, NBA, and NHL futures.
Single-day MLB bets: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%, betting strictly moneylines. We’re trying the same approach this year. We’re 41–46 so far, down 10.33 units. This is like when a young team unexpectedly performs well one season then opens slow to start the next year: We don’t know whether we’re going to heat back up or if we’re actually just bad at this.
MLB futures: We have a great history with these, though the last two years we’ve only made small profits. In both 2019 and 2021, I believe we recorded better than a 50% ROI. In 2020, we lost about 25% of our portfolio. We began this season with 750 units in our portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. We place two medium-confidence bets most weekdays until sometime in September when the scenarios become more specific.
NBA futures: We’ve only done these once before, but they went well. I believe we made a 7% return on our investment last year. We started at the beginning of the Play-In Tournament with a 100-unit portfolio. Right now, we’re mostly just placing one future per day. We’re up 2.67 units so far.
NHL futures: We’ve had mixed results on these. In 2022, we lost 25% of our futures portfolio. Last year, we made a 33% return. We began on the first day of the playoffs with a 100-unit portfolio. Right now, we’re mostly placing just one future per day. We’re down 1.20 units so far.
Baltimore @ St. Louis
We’d be more concerned here about Sonny Gray’s recent home run issues if Dean Kremer hadn’t been doing that all year. We don’t love most of our picks these days, being ten units in the hole on MLB moneylines, and this is no exception. But it’s our best play today.
Pick: St. Louis to win –105. Low confidence. (Kremer and Gray must start.)
NL East
It’s gone on long enough and the lead’s stretched wide enough to consider the Phillies regular season peers to the Braves. The NL East is a two-horse race. The Braves are still justifiably favorites, but the market hasn’t quite caught up to the Phils. They’re playing better baseball than anyone but maybe the Dodgers.
Pick: Philadelphia to win +150. Medium confidence.
ALCS
Meanwhile, the Astros’ tear continues. They’ve cut the Mariners’ lead to four games in the West, and they’re only three and a half out of playoff position. This makes Houston a profitable ALCS scenario for our portfolio, at least temporarily.
Pick: Houston to win +900. Medium confidence.
NBA Western Conference
We’re already heavily in on Minnesota in this series against the Mavericks, but it’s too early to hedge. We like the Timberwolves’ value. We’re looking for them to grab a lead and lengthen Dallas’s odds enough for a hedge to be as inexpensive as possible. If they don’t, we’ll deal with what comes.
Pick: Minnesota to win –175. Low confidence.
Stanley Cup
We’re in a holding pattern on the Western Conference, and we continue to really like the prices on the Rangers. For at least one more day, then, we’ll stock up.
Pick: NY Rangers to win +360. Low confidence.
