Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1.0% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,854 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3.1% across 1,618 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FiveThirtyEight’s models are heavily used in making NBA and soccer futures picks. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Our NHL picks are based on Gelo, our own model.
All four markets today. Here’s what to make of each market’s units.
On single-game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 23–9, we’re up 12.62 units, we’re up 39% (the average line on our winners has been –106). I don’t know how long we can keep this going, but at the moment, we are pulverizing MLB moneylines.
For the MLB futures: We began the season with 750 units in our MLB futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities.
For the NBA future: We began the postseason with 75 units in our NBA futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend one a day over the postseason’s 69 days (if there’s an NBA Finals Game 7). With many payouts coming before the end of the postseason, this will hopefully leave us with at least 25 units on hand at all times should we see an arbitrage opportunity or want to hedge. We’re up 5.74 units so far.
For the NHL futures: We began the postseason with 75 units in our NHL futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend one a day over the postseason’s 63 days (if there’s a Stanley Cup Finals Game 7). The idea is the same as the NBA—we’re hoping to always have at least 25 units on hand at all times should we see an arbitrage opportunity or want to hedge. We’re up 0.96 units so far.
Chicago (NL) @ Washington
There’s a lot to dislike about this pick. Drew Smyly’s second in the NL in xERA. It’s supposed to be damp, adding some randomness to the mix. Kyle Finnegan threw more pitches yesterday than we would have liked. We are trying to get away with betting on the Nationals twice in two days. Still, MacKenzie Gore has been great to start the year, the market doesn’t seem to have noticed, and with the wind blowing out tonight at Nationals Park, we like the guy who’s been inducing groundballs on more than fifty percent of balls in play.
Also: There isn’t a single other option out there that we like.
Pick: Washington to win +120. Low confidence. (Smyly and Gore must start.)
ALCS
There’s value on the Blue Jays today, and we don’t know how long it will be there. This doesn’t make them a profitable scenario for us in the AL, but it gets them close, helping to cover one of our more significant gaps at this early stage. FanGraphs has the Jays the third-likeliest team in baseball to make the playoffs. We like being on their side.
Pick: Toronto to win +600. Medium confidence.
World Series
It’s a similar story here, though for now this leaves Toronto a profitable World Series outcome for our portfolio. We’re in on nine separate teams now to win it all, including four of the five likeliest champs. Not a bad start to the season.
Pick: Toronto to win +1200. Medium confidence.
Eastern Conference
I know Jimmy Butler just hurt his ankle. There’s a decent chance the guy doesn’t play in Game 2, or for the rest of the series. But with a 1–0 lead, home-court advantage seized, and the opponent the Knicks, the Heat’s chances might still be underrated over the rest of this series. With the Sixers’ chances lower but also appearing underrated, even with the Joel Embiid injury, the Heat could get some marginal help on that front in the next round, should they get there. This is more or less a bet that the market overweights injuries.
Pick: Miami to win +600. Low confidence.
Eastern Conference
Staying in the greater Miami area, we like the Panthers’ value in the East. Yes, they’re at a rest disadvantage, but they have less pressure than the Leafs and this is a team that won the Presidents’ Trophy last year and then brought in a lot of talent this offseason. The Stanley Cup Playoffs are about being your best at the best time. There’s a strong argument to be made that this is what’s happening with Florida.
Pick: Florida to win +450. Low confidence.
Game 7: New Jersey vs. New York Rangers
This is a hedge. We like the Devils more than the Rangers tonight, both in terms of probability and value, but we don’t want to exit the first round in the red, and we have one unit outstanding on the Devils to win this series against only 0.96 units of profit so far. So, we’re sacrificing some value to stay ahead of zero. These hockey plays are experimental. We’re going to play them extra safe because of that.
Pick: NY Rangers to win +102. Low confidence.
