Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -4% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 2,856 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% across 762 completed high and medium-confidence picks.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Another loss for Gelo last night, but with no games this evening, just futures on the hockey side. Futures on the baseball side as well, and for portfolio context: The NHL futures bankroll started at 100 units, with 100 in reserve in case of hedging need, while the MLB futures bankroll started at 520 units, with another 520 in reserve for October and any necessary hedging. We’ll start with the hockey, move to the baseball.
Second Round: Florida vs. Tampa Bay
We don’t have anything down on the Panthers yet, though Gelo does view them as the favorite (the market’s just a little too aggressive on favorites overall for Gelo’s taste). We have a little down on the Lightning, but more helps, especially since we’re a little sparse in the East after the Penguins ended up losing.
Pick: Tampa Bay to win +135. Low confidence.
Second Round: Carolina vs. New York Rangers
Also helping that effort is this one on the Rangers, which—should they win the Stanley Cup and should we lose every other outstanding future—keeps them a profitable option for us, alongside the Blues and the Oilers.
Pick: New York Rangers to win +175. Low confidence.
NL East
With this weekend’s near-sweep of the Dodgers, the Phillies reinserted themselves into the NL East race, pulling within five and a half of the Mets, a game ahead of Atlanta.
The Mets remain the Mets, and the nice thing about FanGraphs’s Playoff Odds, which we lean on heavily for these, is that they don’t take into account things like, “The Mets remain the Mets.” This is a good value play regardless of your feelings on New York’s National League franchise’s tendency to shoot itself in the foot, but if you’re of the mind that this foot-shooting is a repeatable thing, there’s even more value here.
Pick: Philadelphia to win +800. Medium confidence.
NLCS
This is more independent of the Mets, but at the same time, it’s worth looking around the NL as a whole. There are reasons to question both the Mets and the Brewers, the Dodgers are good but chronically overpriced, the Padres and Giants are likely to be in the same Wild Card Series cage-match situation as Philadelphia…the NL is somewhat open. We’ll gladly add Philadelphia to our assortment there.
Pick: Philadelphia to win +1800. Medium confidence.
