Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,362 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We’re relying on Neil Paine’s NBA forecast as the basis for our playoff futures portfolio. We use our own Gelo model as the basis for our NHL playoff futures portfolio.
Active markets today: Major League Baseball moneylines, plus NBA and NHL futures. We’re taking the third of our seven planned weekdays off from the MLB futures, but they’ll be back tomorrow.
Single-day MLB bets: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%, betting strictly moneylines. We’re trying the same approach this year. We’re 37–37 so far, down 3.38 units. We started poorly, we rallied, and we went cold again. We pivoted a little last week, though, and we made 2.96 units in those seven days. In other words, we don’t know what direction these are headed right now.
NBA futures: We’ve only done these once before, but they went well. I believe we made a 7% return on our investment last year. We started at the beginning of the Play-In Tournament with a 100-unit portfolio. Right now, we’re mostly just placing one future per day. We’re up 2.79 units so far.
NHL futures: We’ve had mixed results on these. In 2022, we lost 25% of our futures portfolio. Last year, we made a 33% return. We began on the first day of the playoffs with a 100-unit portfolio. Right now, we’re mostly placing just one future per day. We’re down one unit so far.
Colorado @ San Diego
There isn’t anything we like on today’s board, so we’re going with the team we least expect to lose, even if it’s a little expensive. Ha-Seong Kim’s wrist is a concern, and the Padres used their top bullpen arm yesterday in Robert Suarez, but these are still the Rockies, and Randy Vásquez has shown some signs pointing towards optimism despite his rough FIP.
Pick: San Diego to win –220. Low confidence. (Hudson and Vásquez must start.)
Second Round: Oklahoma City vs. Dallas
The Mavs are only a tiny favorite tonight, but they do constitute our biggest vulnerability in the Western Conference, and this isn’t a bad price for a team up 2–1 in a series where each game’s so close to 50/50. We’d still prefer the Thunder get out of this round alive, but we’ll add a unit to Dallas.
Pick: Dallas to win –190. Low confidence.
Stanley Cup
The time has come to add just a little more to our Rangers position. The value’s absurd, and while it’s definitely possible the Hurricanes will win three more in a row, the far likelier scenario is that we don’t see this price again for at least a week.
Pick: NY Rangers to win +400. Low confidence.
