Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -4% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 2,908 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% across 762 completed high and medium-confidence picks.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Gelo was swept yesterday, but we carry on. For futures context: The NHL portfolio started with 100 units, with 100 more units in reserve in case we need them to hedge (which, it turns out, we do). The MLB portfolio started with 520 units, with 520 more units in reserve in case we need them to hedge.
Colorado @ Edmonton (Daily Picks)
Gelo is in perfect agreement with the moneyline here, and it actually does see this going “over 6.5,” but it only projects the total at 6.51, making the under at these odds the closest thing to value we see tonight. We specify that this is a daily pick because it is not part of our futures portfolio, and this next one is.
Pick: Under 6.5 (+115). Low confidence.
Colorado @ Edmonton (Futures Portfolio)
There is, at best, a 1-in-25 chance the Oilers come back and win this series. There is, at best, something like a 2-in-25 chance we even see a Game 7. So, for Game 4, and for Game 5 and Game 6 if they exist, we’re prepared to double down on Avalanche hedges. We estimate that if tonight doesn’t work, we’ll need to bet 31 units on Wednesday to get back to the same place a win tonight would get us, and that we’ll need to then bet 68 units on Friday if the Oilers do force a Game 6. In the meantime, we can pull some levers on the Lightning and Rangers, like the ones we’re pulling below with our non-hedge bets.
We don’t think the Oilers are going to force a Game 6, let alone a Game 7.
And we’re willing to risk a lot here on that bet.
Also, this isn’t awful value. We’re basically just paying the vig to shift our value around.
Ten bets here, just listing them once with that “x10” to keep this readable.
Pick: Colorado to win -133. Low confidence. x10
Eastern Conference
This is still where the value lies in the East. And it’s nearly the only place any value currently lies.
Pick: New York Rangers to win -140. Low confidence.
Pick: New York Rangers to win -140. Low confidence.
World Series
The Dodgers’ bad week last week has created some value in weird places, chiefly on their NL West counterparts to win the World Series. Part of this is the probability one of these guys will steal the division, but the other part—possibly actually a more impactful part—is that the increased probability of the Mets taking the NL’s top seed creates a potentially easier matchup for the winner of the 4/5 Wild Card Series come NLDS time. Weird thing to be looking at this far out, but it’s real, and we’ll happily jump on it.
Pick: San Diego to win +1500. Medium confidence.
Pick: San Francisco to win +2500. Medium confidence.
