Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.9% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,963 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3.1% across 1,617 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FiveThirtyEight’s models are heavily used in making NBA and soccer futures picks. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Our NHL picks are based on Gelo, our own model.
Back to all four markets today, as MLB futures return from the weekend.
On single-game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 38–29, we’re up 4.55 units, we’re up 7% (the average line on our winners has been –113). April was great, May was bad, June is young but fine so far.
For the MLB futures: We began the season with 750 units in our MLB futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities.
For the NBA future: We began the postseason with 75 units in our NBA futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend one a day over the postseason’s 69 days (if there’s an NBA Finals Game 7). With many payouts coming before the end of the postseason, this was designed to leave us with at least 25 units on hand at all times should we see an arbitrage opportunity or want to hedge. We’re up 17.63 units so far.
For the NHL future: We began the postseason with 75 units in our NHL futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend one a day over the postseason’s 63 days (if there’s a Stanley Cup Finals Game 7). The idea is the same as the NBA—we’ve aimed to always have at least 25 units on hand at all times should we see an arbitrage opportunity or want to hedge. We’re up 5.49 units so far.
Chicago (NL) @ San Diego
Blake Snell hasn’t inspired a ton of confidence this year, but Kyle Hendricks hasn’t been sharp in his two starts since returning from injury, getting away with a lot of misses. Hendricks’s contact luck comes over a small sample, but if it’s real, it’s a terrible sign. We’ll take the hearty favorite.
Pick: San Diego to win –165. Low confidence. (Hendricks and Snell must start.)
World Series
The Pirates had a great weekend, so while they’re only a 1-in-200 bet, per FanGraphs, to win the World Series, that’s positive value against 200-to-1 odds (.005 times 200 equals 1.00, while .995 times –1 is only –.995). We’ll happily add another longshot to our portfolio. Worst case, we lose two units. Best case, we enter the playoffs with immense leverage. With this sort of upside now on the Pirates, Marlins, Giants, and Diamondbacks, the chances of us having one of our horses running in October keeps getting higher.
Pick: Pittsburgh to win +20000. Medium confidence.
ALCS
For our other one, we’re just going for maximum value, and right now that’s on the Rangers. Texas is actually favored by FanGraphs to win the AL West, and while we won’t argue that they should be, FanGraphs has a great track record on these things. At the very least, the Rangers are looking like a solid bet to make the playoffs, so much like how we’ve built our big positions on the Giants and Diamondbacks, we’ll keep taking these guys when the numbers pop.
Pick: Texas to win +850. Medium confidence.
NBA Finals
The Heat winning last night is great for us, making our upside more valuable while helping us accelerate the lessening of our downside. We now profit by 46.45 units if the Heat do win the series and only lose 12.45 units if the Nuggets win, but those numbers are headed towards one another day by day until we see a reason to stop the hedge.
Pick: Denver to win –260. Low confidence.
NHL: No Bet
What would such a reason be, to stop the hedge? Well, we want to have at least one joint NBA/NHL scenario in play where we end up back profitable all-time. At the moment, the Heat and Knights both winning is our only such scenario, giving us 61.87 units of profit against our current 60.98-unit deficit. With the profitability margin which that would create less than a unit, we’re not going to hedge again today, and we have enough upside on the Knights that it doesn’t make sense to add more on them either. We’ll have more action tomorrow, probably on both, but for today, we’re letting the hockey side sit.
