Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2.7% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,435 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We’re relying on Neil Paine’s NBA forecast as the basis for our playoff futures portfolio. We use our own Gelo model as the basis for our NHL playoff futures portfolio.
Active markets today: Major League Baseball moneylines, plus MLB, NBA, and NHL futures.
Single-day MLB bets: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%, betting strictly moneylines. We’ve tried a similar approach this year. We’re 50–54 so far, down 9.64 units. It’s been a terrible performance, one in which every sign of progress has been met with a swift comedown. That said, we did go 2–0 yesterday.
MLB futures: We have a great history with these, though the last two years we’ve only made small profits. In both 2019 and 2021, I believe we recorded better than a 50% ROI. In 2020, we lost about 25% of our portfolio. We began this season with 750 units in our portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. We place two medium-confidence bets most weekdays until sometime in September when the scenarios become more specific.
NBA futures: We’ve only done these once before, but they went well. I believe we made a 7% return on our investment last year. We started at the beginning of the Play-In Tournament with a 100-unit portfolio. Right now, we’re mostly just placing one future per day. We’re down 7.83 units so far, but we’re set to profit on the effort if the Celtics win the Finals.
NHL futures: We’ve had mixed results on these. In 2022, we lost 25% of our futures portfolio. Last year, we made a 33% return. We began on the first day of the playoffs with a 100-unit portfolio. Right now, we’re mostly placing just one future per day. We’re down 22.20 units so far, but as with the NBA portfolio, we’ll profit if our portfolio’s preferred champion—in this case, the Panthers—wins.
Cincinnati @ Colorado
One way to sum up Andrew Abbott is that he’s a weak fly ball pitcher. He induces lazy fly balls. His xERA’s great, his FIP is merely fine, and he’s got one of the higher fly ball rates in the league.
The thing about Abbott’s performance so far this year is that his BABIP is wildly low. It’s sitting at .238 going into tonight. The Rockies don’t do much on offense, but one thing they consistently do, year over year, is produce a high BABIP, thanks to Coors Field. How does Coors Field accomplish this? Partly by turning a subset of lazy fly balls into home runs, but more by generally being a huge field of play. It’s the biggest in the league by square footage, which leads to more triples than anywhere else and more doubles than anywhere but the Green Monster-fueled Fenway Park. I’m not sure the fly ball thing actually hurts Abbott that much at Coors Field, but I do expect some BABIP regression tonight. Meanwhile, Ryan Feltner’s an xERA/FIP All-Star. Not literally—he’s not even at one fWAR yet—but now that I think of it, since every team gets one…
Pick: Colorado to win +101. Low confidence. (Abbott and Feltner must start.)
ALCS
We’re doubling up today, taking the Yankees in the ALCS market twice. The price is great, they’re playing great, and our portfolio could really use a profitable scenario involving a favorite.
Pick: New York to win +250. Medium confidence. x2
NBA Finals
More of the same with the Celtics. Our portfolio is now have an effective 35.83-unit bet on them which would pay 4.20 units. Terrible value, but good probability at least.
Pick: Boston to win –220. Low confidence.
Stanley Cup
We’re still on the Eastern Conference here as well. This situation is worse. The portfolio is effectively a 54.20-unit bet, and it only pays 1.39 units. The leverage will improve as we place more on the Panthers, but it’s not going to be good unless Florida takes a two-game lead at some point.
Pick: Florida to win –135. Low confidence.
