Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.9% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,970 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3.1% across 1,617 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FiveThirtyEight’s models are heavily used in making NBA and soccer futures picks. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Our NHL picks are based on Gelo, our own model.
We’re still only doing baseball bets today, letting our NBA and NHL futures portfolios ride. If the Heat can extend the series tonight, we’ll hedge against our large position on them (our downside on the Nuggets isn’t huge, but it’s downside). If the Heat can’t extend the series, we’ll look back at hockey and see if there’s anything we want to do there (we’re locked into additional profit from here, but we get much more of it if the Knights win).
Here’s where we stand in each of today’s two markets.
Single-game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 44–30, we’re up 8.08 units, we’re up 11% (the average line on our winners has been –116). April was great, May was bad, June has been good so far. We’ve won our last five in a row.
MLB futures: We began the season with 750 units in our MLB futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. This is circular, because we use FanGraphs probabilities to guide our picks, but if we use FanGraphs probabilities and include today’s plays, our mean expected return on the 750 units based on what we’ve bet so far is 102.75 units, or 9.9%.
Cincinnati @ Kansas City
We don’t like betting on teams as bad as the Royals. We fear there’s something mental going on that makes them even bigger losers than the numbers indicate. We especially don’t like betting on a team this bad as a favorite.
Still, Zack Greinke’s been solid, Luke Weaver’s been better than his ERA but not good, and the Reds leaned a lot on their best bullpen these last two days. Also? There’s nothing else that great on tonight’s MLB board.
Pick: Kansas City to win –108. Low confidence. (Weaver and Greinke must start.)
World Series
The Guardians’ moment of value continues, as the fellas in Cleveland haven’t lost a series in almost three weeks and the market has not caught up. Should a Guardians team a game and a half out of first place really enjoy the same World Series odds as a Cubs team six and a half back?
Pick: Cleveland to win +8000. Medium confidence.
AL Central
This moment comes at an especially good time for us, because the Guardians are our biggest realistic division winner that’s a major regular season liability. With this placed, we still lose 15 units if Cleveland wins its division, but that’s better than 20, and our upside elsewhere in the AL Central remains solid.
Pick: Cleveland to win +250. Medium confidence.
