Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,322 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We’re relying on Neil Paine’s NBA forecast as the basis for our playoff futures portfolio. We use our own Gelo model as the basis for our NHL playoff futures portfolio.
Active markets today: Major League Baseball moneylines, plus MLB, NBA, and NHL futures.
Single-day MLB bets: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%, betting strictly moneylines. We’re trying the same approach this year. We’re 22–25 so far, down 3.17 units. We’d had a good back half of April, but this past week wasn’t good.
MLB futures: We have a great history with these, though the last two years we’ve only made small profits. In both 2019 and 2021, I believe we recorded better than a 50% ROI. In 2020, we lost about 25% of our portfolio. We began this season with 750 units in our portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. We place two medium-confidence bets most weekdays until sometime in September when the scenarios become more specific.
NBA futures: We’ve only done these once before, but they went well. I believe we made a 7% return on our investment last year. We started at the beginning of the Play-In Tournament with a 100-unit portfolio. Right now, we’re mostly just placing one future per day.
NHL futures: We’ve had mixed results on these. In 2022, we lost 25% of our futures portfolio. Last year, we made a 33% return. We began on the first day of the playoffs with a 100-unit portfolio. Right now, we’re playing just one future per day.
Washington @ Miami
I can’t believe we’re going back to the Marlins, and as a favorite no less, one day after losing when they blew a 7–0 lead, but here we are. Trevor Rogers has pitched great to open the year. This is the only option tonight where everything checks out.
Pick: Miami to win –138. Low confidence. (Irvin and Rogers must start.)
ALCS
The Red Sox are a few games above .500, are hitting on a lot of pitching lottery tickets even through injuries, and haven’t even started hitting as well as they’re expected to hit. They’re not a contender yet for the AL pennant, but they’re a possibility.
Pick: Boston to win +3500. Medium confidence.
AL West
This flips the Astros to a profitable team for us in the AL West market, and while that pushes the Mariners further down, we’re getting it at a price beyond 2-to-1, which makes it above a 1-in-3 split. This is relevant with the AL West most likely becoming a three-way race. If we can get all three teams at odds beyond 2-to-1, we’ll profit. So, we’re grabbing this one now.
Pick: Houston to win +270. Medium confidence.
NBA Finals
These are terribly short odds, but it’s hard to see any Eastern Conference Finals matchup materializing besides Celtics/Knicks, and the Celtics are going to be a heavy favorite in that. The Nuggets face two serious challengers in a row once they get through the Lakers.
Pick: Boston to win +125. Low confidence.
Western Conference (NHL)
These are weird odds for a team up 3–1 in their series. Especially since Vegas, whom the market is evidently so afraid of, would not have home-ice advantage against the Avs. We’ll happily take Colorado, getting out of a little of our Winnipeg liability.
Pick: Colorado to win +325. Low confidence.
